thegoodwills.com

Rental crisis raises risk of homelessness

rental-crisis-homelessness — A roof over your head (eventually). Image by www.pixabay.com,

This topic was sparked by news from a near-neighbour who had received the dreaded ‘landlord requires vacant possession’ letter.

All tenants go into a lease today knowing that the landlord can decide to sell the property, at which point they will be evicted. A lot of landlords have been doing that over the last two years, taking a profit as property prices spiralled.

The rental vacancy figures in this town and just about everywhere else would suggest that once a rental property is sold, it disappears from the rental pool – at least for a while. The national rental vacancy is 1.2% – at a time when analysis of Census housing data suggests that 700,000 private dwellings are locked up and uninhabited. More on that later.

We all know people who are renting and finding it increasingly difficult to feed their families. In recent months, there have been many stories in the media about families struggling to find a place to live. Those who find themselves at the end of a lease with no new home in the pipeline are at risk of becoming homeless.

Even when we are told the reasons for the shortage of housing, solutions are less obvious. Mostly due to self-belief and a strong self-image, some people caught between a lapsing rental and a tight vacancy rate will find their way round it.

It isn’t hard to find caravan parks, farm-stays and outback tourism ventures that need residential caretakers. The successful candidates get to park their vans for free and quite possibly pick up a small stipend as well.

People in these circumstances (a) do not regard themselves as homeless and (b) they can enjoy the luxuries afforded by a 22 ft caravan and an annexe.

June quarter data from CoreLogic shows that Australia’s rental market continues to tighten as low supply levels cause national vacancy rates to dive. Rents continued to rise across all capital cities and property types over the past three months.

Dwelling rents in the June quarter were 9.1% higher across the capital cities and up 10.8% in regional areas, compared to June 2021.

CoreLogic report author Kaytlin Ezzy said the recent upwards trend in rents has occurred mostly in the absence of overseas migration.

“This sustained period of strong rental growth has seen national dwellings record the highest annual growth in rental values since December 2008, when rental demand was supported by record levels of international migration,” Ms Ezzy said.

Vacancy rates across national dwellings fell to a record low of 1.2%, down from 2.2% this time last year.

In March, CoreLogic contributed to a report in The Guardian that found rents in Queensland had risen by as much as $200 a week over the previous two years.

The report found that steep rent rises in parts of Queensland forced people into caravans, sheds and poverty – even before widespread flooding displaced thousands more people.

While the ABS has released 2021 Census housing data, it will be “early to mid-2023” until we see the homelessness data. The most recent official data was collected in 2016 and released a year later. The homeless tally then was 116,427.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) estimates that in 2020–21, around 278,300 people received assistance from Specialised Homelessness Services (SHS). Around 111,100 clients were homeless when they first began support.

There are different categories of homelessness, apart from those who literally have nowhere to go and end up sleeping rough or in a charitable shelter. Then there are people living in sheds, garages and other unconventional buildings, couch surfing (staying with friends), hostels and unsuitable temporary accommodation.

Since late 2019, the onset of the Covid pandemic, the escalating price of real estate and an ever-increasing scarcity of rental properties has unquestionably added more individuals and families to the homeless tally. There is an increasing cohort of ‘hidden homeless’, that is people who are either not eligible to apply for support or feel they do not need it.

In Australia, some of these people head for the great outdoors. Accommodation demand driven by ‘Grey Nomads’ has produced hundreds of free camps and low-priced camp-grounds run by local show societies. The free roadside reserves, which may nor may not have a toilet/and or shower, usually have rules about how long you can stay. In Tasmania, many free camps allow you to stay for up to a month.

.Everyone’s circumstances are different, but we have met many people who had sold their house and bought a road rig. Many of the so-called Grey Nomads are retired tradies and public servants who can afford a $200,000 self-contained rig and go on the road for months at a time.

But if you travel the country and stay in free camps, you are just as likely to see a couple living in a 30-year-old caravan towed by an equally ancient car.

The big problem waiting for Australia’s new Prime Minister to tackle (after he has settled down our Pacific neighbours), is the housing crisis.

Believe me – it is a crisis. There are simply not enough houses to go around. This is particularly so in Queensland, where interstate migration has put the housing sector under massive strain.

There are reasons for the dire shortage of housing and they include delays in building new homes amid adverse weather in 2022. Then there are homes destroyed by floods or bushfires.

But as residential property analyst Michael Matusik discovered, the housing shortage is in part due to some 700,000 private dwellings that are “deliberately left vacant”.

Matusik reached this conclusion after analysing 2021 Census housing data, which showed there were one million unoccupied dwellings in Australia (about 10% of the country’s private residential accommodation).

The ABS defines unoccupied dwellings as: holiday homes (for owner’s use or rented out); investment properties without a tenant; newly built but vacant dwellings; habitable dwellings being renovated and/or vacant dwellings for sale or lease.

Matusik wrestled with those categories and calculated that after discounting the latter, 700,000 unoccupied dwellings were investment properties that were locked up rather than tenanted.

“Many of the unoccupied dwellings are in capital cities, especially Sydney and Melbourne where more apartments are in the dwelling mix,” Matusik wrote in his regular subscriber bulletin, Matusik Missive. “In these cities the proportion of overseas buyers, especially from Asia, and particularly from China, is the highest in the country.

“It is somewhat safe to say that something like 70% of the unoccupied dwellings across Australia are deliberately locked up.

“Assuming past immigration levels return, then there is a need to build some 150,000 new dwellings across Australia each year.

“If we could unlock these 700,000 empty homes, we would not need to build a new home for 4.5 years.”

While admitting this is ‘fantasy land’, Matusik says that any move to open up these dwellings would go a long way to improving short-term dwelling supply.

As we approach National Homelessness Week (August 1-7), some agencies will no doubt be calling for an earlier release of Census data on the homeless.

I asked the peak body, Homelessness Australia, for a comment; but remembered it was de-funded by the Federal Government in 2014. When one of their volunteers gets back to me, I’ll include their comment.

For now I’ll say that however bad the news is, it is better that we know sooner than later.

Covid- it’s everywhere

covid-masks-pandemic — Washing line 2022 Willfried Wende – www.pixabay

On a quick shopping trip this week, it seemed that every second person was wearing a Covid mask, even though there is no legal obligation to do so. Friends, relatives, neighbours and friends of friends are either in isolation because of a positive RAT test or actually have Covid-19. There’s been a nasty flu getting around South-East Queensland at the same time. The only way to tell one from the other is to take a Rapid Antigen Test.

The statistics are a bit scary. The only saving grace is that the Omicron variants are said to be ‘milder’ than the Delta strain which was rampant in 2020.

As of this morning, Queensland reported 45, 824 active cases, including 6,366 new cases in the previous 24 hours. There were 907 hospitalisations and 14 patients in Intensive Care Units. There have been 73 deaths (people who died with Covid) this week alone.

There are many unanswered questions about this third wave of the Omicron variant. Like, how come we haven’t had it? Knock on wood. Or why do some people get “long Covid’’ where symptoms persist for months?

If you look at the historical charts, you have to wonder why governments decided to take their collective feet off the pedals of the crowd control machine.

On December 16, 2021, Queensland had 17 cases (a weekly average of 9). Then we opened the borders, relaxed the mask mandate and other rules like contact tracing which had thus far kept the virus out of Queensland.

By January 17, 2022, new cases had spiked to 31,056. While numbers have since fallen away, the State reported 32, 355 new cases (between July 11 and 15), with hospitalisation rates between 800 and 900.

Cumulatively, Queensland has now recorded 1.63 million cases (equates to 32% of the population) and 1,388 deaths. So much for Omicron being more infectious but less serious than Delta.

Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard has been quoted that catching Covid is “inevitable”. Ironically former chief health officer Jeanette Young, now Governor of Queensland, was also taken down by the virus.

Did you know that the entire Queensland Maroons rugby league team held a fan day in Warwick last week? The visit started with a sold-out dinner on Tuesday night with guest speakers including Maroons coach Billy Slater. Next day there was a street parade, breakfast in the park, coaching clinics for children and then the Maroons had a training session at the local footie oval. A few days later, two members of the team, Cameron Munster and Murray Taulagi tested positive for Covid and were unable to play in the decider on Wednesday.

I did notice that team members wore masks as they mingled with the thousands of fans who turned out to meet and greet.

Which brings me back to people wearing masks – in the street, in cafes, shopping centres and pharmacies. The latter used to insist on customers wearing a mask, but without the muscle of a state-mandated instruction, they can only make polite suggestions.

Remember the days of close contacts and contact tracing? The border closures, closed-down cafes and bars? Apart from hospitals, organisations with a Covid policy and employers, it seems you don’t have to prove you are double vaccinated. Hardly anyone checks to see the green tick on your phone. I was only asked to do so twice on a three-week trip to Tasmania in April. We did find you had to wear masks on public transport in Victoria and Tasmania (as you do in Queensland, although many do not wear masks).

An approved style of mask is your first line of defence to avoid being infected by Covid-laced aerial droplets. Second line is to stay home as much as possible.

The people I feel for are those who cannot avoid being in close quarters with other people (aged care homes, prisons, detention centres etc). It is now well known that residents in aged care are vulnerable; not only because of their living circumstances, but also because most are 75 and over and in the high-risk category.

Nationally there have been 2,881 deaths in aged care homes since the pandemic began in early 2020 and 2,580 residential aged care facilities have had an outbreak during that time. It’s probably misleading to include those two facts in the same sentence because the mind goes: ‘Hey, that’s an average of one death for each facility.’
The Guardian reported yesterday that 100 aged care residents are dying with Covid each week, with more than 700 current outbreaks. The industry fears that two-thirds of aged care homes across Australia may be grappling with outbreaks over the next six weeks.

Amid reports of a Covid outbreak on a cruise ship anchored in the Brisbane River, I went looking for places in the world where the virus had been contained. Unhappily, the virus has caught up with some of the 10 or so island countries which, until the end of 2021, had managed to stay safe. They included Nauru, which went from zero cases in late 2021 to 40% of the population being infected. Nauru, as you may or may not know, is ‘home’ to 129 asylum seekers, most of whom have been on the island since 2012.

The World Health Organisation confirms that there are currently 121 new cases in Nauru and a cumulative 6,237 cases (and one death) since January 2022.

Citing global numbers, the WHO says that as of July 11 there have been 552.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6.34 million deaths. As of 2 July 2022, a total of 12.03 billion vaccine doses had been administered. As for the United States, 87 million cases have been recorded since early 2020 and 1.02 million deaths. Donald Trump, we’re looking at you.

Compare that with Australia – 10,515 deaths since the first cases were seen in February 2020.

This takes me back to an early report from Seattle, the US city that gave the world the TV soap opera ‘Grey’s Anatomy’. A community choir had met for a rehearsal in the early days of Covid when nobody knew what we were dealing with.

As Live Science recalls, 52 people were unknowingly infected with Corona virus at a choir practice in Mount Vernon, Washington. The event led to the deaths of two people.

The practice happened on March 10, roughly two weeks before Washington Governor Jay Inslee issued a ‘stay home stay healthy’ executive order, barring social gatherings and non-essential travel.

That story shocked Australian choral singers. Most community choir directors I knew decided to cancel rehearsals for the foreseeable future. We mucked around on Zoom for a while and had a few tentative practices outside, but it just wasn’t the same. Eventually in 2021, as case numbers began to fall, choirs and orchestras started rehearsing again under controlled circumstances.

Experts told us that singing in a closed room was a sure-fire way to catch the virus – 20 or 30 people spraying droplets everywhere. Nobody said anything about 52,000 people in a footie stadium shouting and screaming for 80 minutes. Yes, it was an open-air event, but even so, those patrons walked in and out of the venue, used the public toilets and struggled back and forth along packed aisles, spilling beer and spreading potentially lethal aerial droplets around. Because Queensland won the State of Origin series, there was lots of hugging, kissing and selfie-posing. Then they all got on trains and buses, noisily singing the team song on the way home.

Don’t get me started. (Yes, but ‘we’ won – wasn’t it sweet? Ed)

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Goodwills website update and August gigs

Winter 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends of the Goodwills

Here’s big thanks to people who ordered songs or albums from Bandcamp, our preferred download service and to those who paid extra. Despite writing an internet satire song in 1999, we have been slow to adapt to changing tastes in music delivery. The insight came when my nephew texted me a few years back to say: “Can’t find you on Spotify, Uncle’.

Tedious though it may have been, I have updated our website to more accurately reflect the digital age of music. We dispensed with our ecommerce shop and instead now present you with two alternatives.

There is a page called Goodwills Online that shows at a glance how many of our albums/songs are available for download or streaming. There are links to Bandcamp (our preferred music download service) and Spotify, which seems to be a necessary part of the whole.

For the old-school (people who still have CD players in their cars) Goodwills CD Shop will show you what’s available, prices and instructions on how to order physical CDs. As we still have a stock of Australia Post CD boxes and now get pensioner stamps, we can send an album to you for $2 postage. We should charge $3 but we still have stock under the bed and would prefer one day to be able to vacuum under there!

Goodwills Videos

We’ve been a bit better at producing YouTube videos although we have not done one for a while. Our most popular videos, Get the Kids off Nauru and Rangitiki have almost 2000 views between them.

A video cover of Bob’s song Courting the Net by Brisbane folkie Mary Brettell has had 1,687 views. . See if you can knock her over the 2000 line.

In 2020 we produced a series of lockdown videos where we would sit among the plants and garden beds and sing one of my songs or a cover. We should probably do an ‘after-Covid’ series, should that day ever come. Feral Cat Blues

Here is the link to our YouTube channel

Or you can view selected videos on the video page of our website. The best of them are well-produced, the rest as like us – a bit daggy.

Upcoming Goodwills gigs:

July 10: Warwick U3A Rooms 2pm. A fundraiser for refugees – donation

August 3: Red Hill Folk, Red Hill Bowls Club, Fulcher Road $5.

August 4: Muzika, 7.30pm – assorted acts. Maleny RSL $10

After the floods, the clean-up

floods-clean-up — O.O Madsen Bridge, image by Sandra Wilson, May 13, 2022

I had no sooner finished writing about floods in Warwick when it started raining again. I’d written the lead article for our local U3A newsletter last week, recounting the times since 2000 the Condamine River had closed the main bridge into town.

The answer (so far) is four – October 2010, January 2011, January 2013 and May 2022, when the river rose above 6.5m. Closing the bridge effectively cleaves the town in two,as alternative routes will also be under water if this happens. This time, the closure was for only 24 hours; but in 2013, the highway was cut for days, as the river peaked at 7.21m.

The O(tto) O(ttosen) Madsen Bridge is not just the link across the Condamine River, it is a national monument. The 58-year-old bridge is a vital link between Brisbane and Sydney, carrying traffic across the bridge from the Cunningham to New England highways.

Spanning 100m across the Condamine River, the O.O. Madsen Bridge was opened in 1964. It is dedicated to Otto Madsen, who was State MLA for Warwick from 1947–1963 and served as a Minister in the Nicklin Government between 1957 and 1963. If you have ever taken the inland highway to or from New South Wales, you’ll have driven across it.

On May 13 this year, after an early call from a friend, we did a dash to the supermarket and got safely home again before the bridge closed. Twenty-four hours later (the rain having stopped) the river level dropped and the bridge re-opened.

It might seem churlish to complain about the minor inconvenience, given that so many parts of urban and rural Australia have been smashed multiple times by floods. The damage bill this year for South East Queensland and NSW alone is $4.38 billion.

In February this year, floods visited the Sunshine Coast, Lockyer Valley, Toowoomba, Gympie and Maryborough, to name a few regions. In late February, the northern NSW town of Lismore was badly flooded. Lismore copped it again a few weeks later. In some parts of town, the flood levels were so high houses and shops vanished beneath the waters.

This week, a major rain event revisited Sydney, the Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury and Hunter regions of New South Wales. This is only three months after unprecedented rains inundated many NSW cities and towns. Apart from the drama, the danger, and loss of property, those affected by floods are almost always traumatised. Being forced to live through flood events twice within six months is more than anyone should have to bear.

Those of us who live on high and dry properties might blithely say “Oh well, you did have insurance, didn’t you?”

That’s a thorny question and one worth trying to shed some light on.

The latest data from the Insurance Council of Australia on the 2022 South East Queensland and Northern NSW floods tells a story.

Data from June shows that of the 225,000 claims made, 68,000 have been settled, leaving 157,000 claims still outstanding,

Three to six months after flood events in SEQ and NSW, 70% of those who made claims are still waiting. To be fair to insurers, a claims assessor must physically visit the property to which the claim applies. The assessor then makes a recommendation and the claims department makes a decision. It all takes time.

Typically, those badly affected by natural disasters like bush fires and floods turn to State and Federal government for help.

New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet said in March this year the floods then affecting NSW were a “one-in-one-thousand-year event”. But that’s not what science, or the insurance industry, suggests, according to University of Melbourne academic Antonia Settle. The Conversation says that Australian home owners and businesses are facing escalating insurance costs in areas prone to fires, cyclones and floods.

The trend is being driven by the frequency and severity of extreme weather events as the global climate continues to change.

Premiums have risen sharply over a decade, as insurers count the cost of insurance claims and factor in future risks. Rising insurance premiums are creating a crisis of under-insurance in Australia, Settle says.
Under-insurance has been a problem for untold thousands whose houses were wrecked by floods. In some cases, insurers have no option but to offer a cash payment rather than re-instate what has been damaged or destroyed. (The level of insurance the policyholder has chosen will not cover the cost of a repair or rebuild).

Settle writes that the two main ways to reduce insurance premiums are to limit global warming (not something Australia can achieve on its own) or reduce the damage caused by extreme events.

This means constructing more disaster-resistant buildings, or not rebuilding in high-risk areas (Ed: obviously, do not build houses (or railways) on flood plains).

The (Morrison) Federal government put most of its eggs in a different basket. Its plan was to subsidise insurance premiums in northern Australia, in response to an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission investigation in 2020.

The ACCC’s final report into insurance affordability found the average cost of home and contents insurance in cyclone-prone northern Australia was almost double the rest of Australia. The rate of non-insurance was almost double – 20% compared with 11%.

Former PM Scott Morrison copped harsh criticism for this policy, as he did for his tardy response to the Lismore floods and before that, not funding urgent requests for more fire-fighting aircraft during the Black Summer bush fires.

Our globe-trotting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, keen to mend fences, confirmed he would visit flood-affected towns along the Hawkesbury River when he touched down yesterday from a hectic schedule of visits to Europe. This is such a contrast to his predecessor’s weak and belated responses to bush fires and floods.

Meanwhile on the Southern Downs, more rare winter rain is causing the saturated ground to send run-off into the catchment. Relatively few properties in Warwick are prone to flooding, but the damage in low-lying areas is clearly evident. As a farmer who lives on the banks of the Condamine explained, he has seen six floods in the past 18 months, although only one forced the closure of the O. O. Madsen Bridge.

If you walk along the riverbank today, you will see visible signs of flood damage to fences, posts, park benches, trees, light poles and any infrastructure that happened to be in the way of rushing flood waters (the dog park, which has now been completely dismantled, as an acknowledgement of defeat after being knocked over four times). Most damage has been caused to fences, which simply collapse under the weight of water and debris.

BlazeAid, a volunteer organisation initially set up as a response to the aftermath of bush fires, has set up a base camp at Warwick Showgrounds. The base camp in Warwick was established last month to carry out the organisation’s most valued work – rebuilding fences destroyed by fires or floods.

Warwick coordinator Brad Young is very pleased with the response to the camp.“BlazeAid volunteers have come from all over, including WA, Vic, NSW, ACT and QLD,” he said, adding, “We have currently 38 properties on the books, with an estimated 100 kilometres of fencing to repair, rebuild and clean.”

BlazeAid was formed in 2009 after the Black Saturday bush fires in Victoria. Founders Kevin and Rhonda Butler created the charity as a way for retired farmers, tradespeople and others to volunteer on properties affected by natural disaster. BlazeAid has to date completed more than 15,000 kilometres of fencing around Australia, all built by volunteers and funded by donations.

It’s never too late to volunteer.

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Arthritis and the global business of hip replacements

arthritis-hip-replacements — Photo by www.pixabay.com

Who’d have known there were 2.150 million Australians who suffer from arthritis? It was one of the questions in the 2021 Census (asking about long-term health problems). I don’t recall answering the question, but don’t doubt that I ticked the top 3 boxes.

The three biggest long term health issues in Australia are: mental health, arthritis and asthma.

The 2021 Census was the first time the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) asked about diagnosed long-term health conditions. Two million-plus people reported having at least one of the top three – mental health (2,231,543), arthritis (2,150,396) and asthma (2,068,020).

Of those who responded to the survey, 4.78 million reported having one of the 10 long-term health conditions; 1.49 million reported having two of the health conditions and 772,142 had three or more.

Let’s focus on health issue number two – arthritis. There’s a bit of it in my family and when the weather is cold or I have been playing guitar, typing or weeding, ‘Arthur’ reminds me he is king of my castle.

So far it is just swollen hand joints (thumb and pinkie) and occasional pain in the hip and femur. Despite having major surgery on both knees in 1969, I’ve ducked the serious inflammation that attacks hips and knees.

I once met the late jazz musician, Don Burroughs, who suffered with arthritis in later life. He told me he’d successfully taught himself different techniques for playing clarinet, flute and saxophone. Veteran guitarists will tell you similar stories of how to play, holding the instrument in different positions.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shed some light on the subject in 2020 with a report that looked at an array of musculo-skeletal conditions that affect the bones, muscles and joints. These conditions include long-term (chronic) conditions such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile arthritis, back pain and problems, gout, and osteoporosis or osteopenia (low bone density).

The latter caught my attention as I recently checked in with the Bone Bus and had scans done of my hips, knees, spine and upper arms.

The Bone Bus is a travelling clinic with the sole purpose of measuring patients’ bone density. The scan is one of three procedures people over 70 can have that is wholly funded by Medicare. I had the pneumonia and shingles vaccines about 18 months ago. But ever since then, I was away travelling when the bone bus came to town.

According to John Hopkins Medicine, a bone density test is used mainly to diagnose osteopenia and osteoporosis. It is also used to determine your future fracture risk.

I have not seen a doctor about my scan yet (it can take a week to see a GP in this town – or any other for that matter), but I’m fairly relaxed about it. I’ve had a couple of tumbles in the garden and in the house in recent years and suffered only bruises of the flesh and ego.

Not so for some of my peers, who have either had a hip or knee replacement or fractured a hip after a fall.

Friends who broke a hip report a good rate of recovery. One friend was back driving six weeks later. Another was getting about town on a walking stick within a month.

The main issue when an older person falls and fractures a hip is the risk of death. The one-year mortality rate after hip fracture is 21%, once the fracture is surgically addressed. If not, the one-year mortality is about 70%.

This means 4 out of 5 older persons will survive the first year after a hip fracture. This mortality rate has remained unchanged since the 1980s.

The Conversation goes one step further, saying a hip fracture can often be a ‘death sentence’. The statistics around hip fractures in the elderly are alarming, notably that 27% of hip fractures occurred after a fall in an aged care facility.

Age is a key risk factor, with hip fractures more likely to occur in those aged 65 or older. They’re primarily a result of a fall, or when the hip collides with a solid object such as a kitchen bench. However, they can also occur when there has been little or no trauma.

Cognitive impairment such as dementia can increase the risk of falling. Frailty, poor vision, the use of a combination of medications, and trip hazards in the home also increase the likelihood of falls. Osteoporosis, a disease characterised by low bone mass and degradation of bone tissue, is another significant risk factor for hip fractures.

Data from the AIHW collated in 2017 found that 93% of new hip fractures were the result of a fall-related injury, of which 87% were minimal trauma (low-impact) falls. Nearly half (48%) occurred in the person’s private home, and, as mentioned, 27% occurred in an aged care facility.

Falls and fractures aside, if your hips are problematic, replacement surgery with advanced robotics and titanium prosthetics is the preferred option to waiting for the inevitable fall.

The hip replacement procedure has improved greatly since it started to become commonplace in the early 1990s. This YouTube video explains by animation how a compromised hip joint is replaced.

Osteoarthritis is usually the condition that leads to requiring a hip replacement. People with bad hips do have options (first line of treatment is anti-inflammatory drugs). Eventually, though, GPs are more likely to suggest a hip replacement than not. The technology for the procedure has improved to the point where the successful, pain-free recovery rate is above 95% and 90%-95% at the 10-year mark.

Surgeons have been able to replace worn-out or diseased hip joints since the 1960s, but it wasn’t until the late 1980s that people began actively seeking it out as an option.

About 44,000 Australians sign up for a hip replacement every year with more than 90% reporting a good outcome.

An article attributed to Fortune Business Insights shows that hip replacement surgery is a $US6.57 billion global business. Despite a 12.1% decline in turnover through 2020 (as Covid postponed elective surgeries), the business of replacing hips is huge.

Globe Newswire reported that the global market size is projected to hit US9.91 billion by 2028. The forecast growth is due to the “growing prevalence of osteoarthritis in the geriatric community”.

The market’s growth is also attributable to “favourable health reimbursement policies”.

We are fortunate in Australia that such procedures are paid for by Medicare, albeit after a lengthy waiting period. A hip replacement can cost between $19,439 and $42,007 (median $26,350). You probably know people who have had both hips done. Three cheers for free medical care (introduced by Gough Whitlam in 1974 and further enhanced by Medicare in 1984).

Meanwhile I should, I know I should, go back to the aged person’s gym that focuses on stretching and flexing, working on the all-important core strength which helps us keep our balance.

As for knees, which are more problematic, I already wrote about that.

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The Future for Refugees in Rural Australia

future-refugees-regional — Chart by ASRC

Australians who support asylum seekers and refugees have been optimistic of improved policy since the Labor Party won the Federal election on May 24. As you can see by the above chart, there is daylight between the tough policies of the former government and the more compassionate policies of Labor and The Greens.

While we wait for clearer direction from the new government, Australians who care about refugees ramped up their efforts for Refugee Week (June 19-25). In Warwick, we held our first-ever Welcome Walk, when a group of 40 walked the footpaths of Warwick. The 3.5 kms route we took on Sunday was symbolic of the distance from the centre of Kabul in Afghanistan to Kabul Airport. As you’d know, there was a multi-national evacuation response when the Taliban stormed the capital last August.

For Australia’s part, some 4,000 Afghans with Australian visas made it on to evacuation flights and ended up here. But thousands more, who rushed the airport in panic and frustration, were left stranded. It’s been a similar scene in Ukraine, with some 8 million refugees streaming across borders into Poland and other neighbouring countries.

About 70% of refugees seek refuge in neighbouring countries. Nevertheless, there are 38,513 people (August 2021) seeking asylum in Australia, including 4,452 children. Many groups and individuals in Australia actively try to help those who have been granted refugee status. Government policies tend to favour resettlement of refugees in regional and rural areas. But welfare organisations have been critical of the lack of support for refugee resettlement in country Australia.

A study by the University of South Australia found that rural and regional schools can be under-resourced and ill-prepared to support refugees and their families. UniSA researcher Jennifer Brown said policy makers needed to better understand the nuances of regional and rural communities to help them welcome refugees. She said many rural schools felt under-supported and uncertain about how best to help.

“Appropriate resourcing for rural schools is a starting point, but training and opportunities for inter–cultural learning and engagement must also occur within communities if we are really to deliver change.”

As you can see from the chart above, there’s a wide gulf between the Liberal National Party’s policies on refugees and those of Labor and The Greens.

As an example, the Albanese government stood by a pre-election promise and brought the Nadesalingham family back to Biloela. The reason the Tamil family’s case has become so well known is that a grass-roots group much like ours helped get the story out and campaign for the family.

We are members of the Southern Downs Refugee and Migrant Network, a small group or ordinary people who want to encourage Australians to accept refugees.

Warwick is a country town of some 15,000 people and to date we have no refugees living here. SDRAMN is currently supporting a family in Kabul while they seek visas for neighbouring Iran. We are affiliated with Rural Australians for Refugees, a grass-roots organisation that aims to support settlement of refugees in regional and rural towns.

Toowoomba, Australia’s largest inland city, has been a strong advocate for inviting refugees into their community. Since the mid-1990s, South Sudanese refugees began arriving in Toowoomba, 127 kms west of Brisbane. By 2021, the South Sudanese population had grown to 2,300. Refugees from Darfur and the Congo began arriving in the city, followed by thousands from Chad, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and the Middle East. In an Amnesty International submission to the Federal Government in 2021, Toowoomba Mayor Paul Antonio said that since the city decided in 2013 to become a Refugee Welcome Zone, the numbers of refugees arriving in Toowoomba had grown to a maximum 1,100 per year.

While we wait for the new government to turn its attention to refugee policy, support groups will continue to do what they do best – raising awareness and raising funds.

The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre held its annual Telethon on Monday June 20 and raised $1.650 million to help support asylum seekers and other groups who support refugees.

The ASRC does a lot of unheralded work with asylum seekers, including, since March 2021, finding homes for 138 people in three States after they were released from detention.

While the ASRC has a large budget and generous donors, small grass-roots support groups and individuals can make a difference. Warwick resident Sally Edwards decided to raise funds to bring a Ukranian family to Brisbane, where other family members live. Within weeks she had raised $25,000, aided by local media coverage, a garage sale and donations.

While the spotlight of public attention has switched from Afghanistan to Ukraine, the world refugee problem is huge and complex. The UNHCR says there are “at least” 89.3 million people around the world who have been forced to flee their homes. Among them are nearly 27.1 million refugees, around half of whom are under the age of 18.

In Australia, our number one issue is what the previous government referred to as the “legacy case-load”. Approximately 30,000 asylum seekers arrived in Australia by boat between 13 August 2012 and 1 January 2014. (The legacy case-load also includes babies born in Australia to asylum seekers in this category). They arrived in Australia during the Labor government’s term of office and were barred from making an application for protection for up to four years following their arrival. The succeeding Coalition government introduced exceptional legislative restrictions on their eligibility for protection visas.

The murky history of the legacy cases starts with Julia Gillard’s Labor government, which commissioned a report in 2012 as to how to handle the growing influx of ‘boat people’. Measures taken by Gillard included resuming the controversial offshore processing policy.

Then came the Abbott Government and immigration minister Scott Morrison, who reintroduced Temporary Protection Visas. Morrison stated that the government would not give a permanent visa to anyone who had arrived by boat. In 2014, the Abbott government also denied access to publicly funded legal assistance to all who had arrived in Australia without a valid visa, further delaying processing of refugee claims.

The latest data from the Department of Home Affairs says that 93% of the 31,112 legacy cases have been ‘decided’. Of the 29,012 resolved cases, 5,191 were granted three-year Temporary Protection Visas (TPV) and 13,136 were given five-year Safe Haven Enterprise Visas (SHEV). The department has 2,110 cases that have not been resolved and another 870 that were refused but are seeking merit reviews. People granted a TPV or SHEV can work, get Medicare and receive short-term counselling for torture and trauma. Children under 18 can attend school.

It is important to note that people with these types of visas must re-apply for them on a regular basis. The new government has not elaborated on its plan for permanent resettlement for all refugees

The extensive delays to processing claims has caused some asylum seekers to develop a clinical syndrome different from other trauma-related mental disorders. Psychiatrists have labelled this ‘protracted asylum seeker syndrome’ and pointed to the heightened risk of suicide among this group.

The important step for asylum seekers is to have their application for asylum heard. The sticking point is the Australian Government’s entrenched stance on “Illegal maritime arrivals”. Apart from re-defining the term to “irregular”, the Albanese Government needs to offer this group of people some certainty about their future in Australia. It’s just the decent thing to do.

FOMM back pages

Stagflation, recession and the price of lettuce

recession-inflation-lettuce — staglation and lettuce (Photo Pixabay.com)

It used to be that using the R word in a headline was tantamount to a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I added ‘lettuce’ to diminish the risk.

Those inventive purveyors of ‘memes’ (visual satire), have been going on about the supposed price of lettuces in Australia – ‘tip of the iceberg’ and suchlike puns. I tend to invoke the Darryl Kerrigan mantra when confronted with over-priced food items (as much as $11). Darryl, from the Australian film The Castle, is fond of saying ‘tell them they’re dreaming’ when told how much someone wants for a second-hand item.

You may have noticed the proliferation of articles aimed at making your dollar go further at the supermarket (and butcher). The two things these shopping guide articles have in common is they all insist on having a plan (a weekly menu) and many of them advise going quasi-vegetarian.

A wise friend of mind from a large family adds a third piece of advice when prices are starting to rise, as they have been doing since March this year.

“I shop around and always look for what’s reasonable. Cauliflowers are quite cheap at the moment, so I bought a couple, whipped up a white sauce, added some bacon and there’s a nice lunch right there.”

She Who Goes by Various Acronyms specialises in making nutritious soups, which also go well with the cold weather. All she needs is a packet of soup mix, pumpkin, sweet potato, carrots and whatever else is affordable at the (organic) fruit and vegie shop.

Now I’m going to delve into global inflation, why it’s happening and what can be done about it. We are not yet in times of stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment/low wages),but watch this space. We all know that the price of fuel, energy and food is rising rapidly. Australia’s official inflation rate increased to 5.1% in the March quarter, due to higher construction costs and fuel prices.

Unemployment may start to rise once the first batch of house builders (who quoted on a fixed price) go broke because of the rising cost of timber and other building materials. Reserve Bank governor Phillip Lowe told the ABC’s 7.30 he believed inflation could go to 7% by the end of the year (as it is now in the UK)

As happened to the Whitlam government in the early 1970s, Anthony Albanese’s Labor government is taking their turn at the wheel just as the perfect economic storm is breaking. The war in Ukraine, a weakening Australian dollar, rising automotive fuel price, an energy crisis and lingering disruption to the supply chain are just some of the challenges.

As so often happens when you write a weekly opinion piece, someone else will get to the topic first, as economic commentator Alan Kohler did in the New Daily.

Kohler’s piece deals with “the two great stupidities behind our inflation”.

“Unlike previous episodes, this inflation is NOT caused by galloping consumer demand or runaway wages, which is what higher interest rates are designed to suppress, but by two colossal stupidities that are entirely impervious to the Reserve Bank.”

Kohler calls Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine ‘Stupid No 1’ pointing to trade embargoes and disruption to the global supply of fuel and commodities like coal.

So now we have an energy shock like that of 1973 (which led to a recession in 1974). Kohler the says the Reserve Bank of Australia is “trying to make sure we have a recession this year, by adding a credit squeeze to an energy shock”.

As we know, the RBA has raised official interest rates twice in recent months. Lowe told the ABC’s Leigh Sales interest rates could go as high as 2.5%, a rude shock, given that the RBA told the public (when?) there’d be no rate hike until 2024.

Kohler’s second ‘Stupid’ claim is Australia’s lack of a cohesive energy policy, including a “capacity mechanism”. By that he means paying someone to keep spare electricity generation capacity on tap to cover power station or grid failures.

The real culprit in rising inflation though is Australia’s supply chain, disrupted by two years of restrictions on movement due to the pandemic. Add to that the ongoing cycle of disruption to roads and railways caused by a series of extreme weather events and we’re in a bit of a pickle. The rising price of diesel was passed on to us as consumers by transport companies keen to keep the balance sheet in the black.

The previous Federal government reduced the amount of excise it levies on fuel but even so, it costs $200 or more to fill the tank of an SUV. I suspect the (Morrison) government’s rare show of generosity in this instance has been overlooked.

What do to about fuel excise is just one of hundreds of issues the Albanese government has on its plate right now, including global issues beyond its control.

The World Bank says the global economy is entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation”. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report says the conditions raise the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle and low-income economies alike.

Global growth is expected to slump from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022. This is well below the 4.1% anticipated in January.

“It is expected to hover around that pace over 2023-24, as the war in Ukraine disrupts activity, investment, and trade in the near term, pent-up demand fades, and fiscal and monetary policy accommodation is withdrawn.”

As a result of the damage from the pandemic and the war, the World Bank expects level of per capita income in developing economies to be 5% below its pre-pandemic trend.

“The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth,” World Bank President David Malpass said. “For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid.”

The risk is arguably highest in the US, which has seen inflation run past 8% in recent times, the highest in 40 years. Inflation was reported last Friday at 8.5% in May, up from 8.3% in April. The rise was widely reported as a trigger for Tuesday’s massive sell-off in global share markets. As Kohler observed, the fear is that central banks will raise interest rates in a bid to dampen inflation. But it might not work.

Even though Australia’s wage growth has stalled during the decade the Coalition were in charge, we are still better off than the average US worker. The average hourly minimum wage in Australia, at $20.33, is well above the US ($7.25) although 25 States pay more than $10 an hour, with California best, at $15 an hour.

It’s no surprise there are grave concerns in the US for those who are out of work or struggling to get by on low wages (and tips).

As in Australia, a booming house market has made housing unaffordable for many Americans. The Guardian said that 49% of people surveyed by Pew Research said affordable housing was a big problem in their community.

They say charity starts at home, so here’s my tip to help someone on a $100 a week food budget.

Beef casserole: buy 1kg chuck steak (about $8.99) and put it in a slow cooker with assorted vegetables ($7) and herbs. Let it brew all day then cook some rice and lash out for a French bread stick. That’s more than enough for two meals and gives you time to shop for the next two-day budget meal. As for the $8 lettuce, tell them they’re dreaming.

Tiananmen Square and the China Dilemma

tiananmen-square-china — Gough Whitlam meets Chairman Mao Tse Tung in 1973 Image courtesy of the National State Archives

We released a new CD around the time of the 33^rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, or as it is known by China’s government, ‘June Fourth Incident’. I mention this not as some outrageous plug for ‘merch’ but to draw your attention to the historic photo on the album cover. (Ed is now cringing slightly at the thought of plugging ‘merch’.)

It shows Prime Minister Gough Whitlam meeting China’s then-president, Mao Tse Tung in 1973. The photo, provided by the National Archives of Australia, portrays these unlikely comrades in a congenial setting. The photo was taken during Whitlam’s visit to China, the first by an Australian PM.

This year I started attending a U3A course called China Today, curated by long-time China-watcher Neil Bonnell. The key topics at the most recent meeting were the end of the volatile Covid lock-down in Shanghai and other cities, the 33^rd anniversary of Tiananmen Square and the pending appointment or re-appointment of the country’s next President. Not that we hear a lot about it here, but there has been speculation about the health of the incumbent, Xi Jinping.

Xi has been in charge of China since 2011 and presided over a burgeoning economy in an autocratic manner. He now faces some serious challenges, just as Australia’s new government battles to resume ‘normal’ relations with China.

The former LNP government fell out with China by taking an adversarial stance on sensitive issues. They include the decision to exclude Chinese technology company Huawei from participating in the rollout of 5G mobile technology in Australia. The Morrison government then announced it would conduct an inquiry into how Covid started (in China). Moreover, from 2018 the government became concerned over Chinese political influence in Australia’s governments, universities and media.

As the 2022 election approached, there was continuous negative feedback about the sale to China of ports in the Northern Territory and Chinese shareholdings in other Australian ports. (Despite the xenophobia this tends to produce, recent data on China’s level of investment in Australia (just 3% of the total direct foreign investment) suggest the boom is over).

All of these issues were handled by former Prime Minister Scott Morrison in a tactless manner, betraying that he did not fully understand what ‘losing face’ means to the Chinese. We ended up with import bans, a hostile reaction to our diplomatic endeavours to put things right and a refusal by the leadership to meet with their Australian counterparts.

Into this heady scene tiptoed the new Labor government, sticking to its ‘softly, softly’ script. China’s Premier Li Keqiang welcomed the new government in language the ABC interpreted as ‘warm’, as he mentioned the Whitlam government forming diplomatic ties with China almost 50 years ago.

Eminent Australian journalist Rowan Callick, who, for 20 years, was the Australian Financial Review’s South-East Asia correspondent, recently said that the Chinese Communist Party had ‘eaten’ China.

In delivering the Ramsay Centre’s annual lecture, Callick elaborated on this, listing examples of CCP manipulation of Chinese life to ensure its own survival. He discussed how “CCP control over media and social media, national celebrations and events, education, and even printing presses had worked to suppress traditional elements of Chinese culture so that only party-friendly elements remain”.

But despite CCP control over Chinese society, Mr Callick believes the will and genius of the Chinese population will prevail.

“The party (CCP) has eaten China but it will not prove easy to digest. And China’s marvellous civilisation is being nurtured, if necessarily quietly or preferably silently, within the country by persevering scholars, artists and ordinary citizens, and overseas by people who are recreating it there.”

As Australia’s new foreign minister Penny Wong was flying around the Pacific shoring up relationships with our neighbours, China was being similarly pro-active. Despite the contentious agreement with the Solomon Islands and smaller Pacific kingdoms, it appears as if we are ‘back in the game’.

Given the long list of issues left to the incoming Federal Government, we’d assume making up with China would be a low priority – not if PM Anthony Albanese has read a book published in 2020 by former diplomat Geoff Raby.

In China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s place in the new world order, the former Australian Ambassador even speculated then that China had ‘given up’ on Australia.

A review by James Curran published in the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter tracks Raby’s argument that Australia needs to look at China “as it is, not as some fear it might become”.

“Since Tony Abbott’s Prime Ministership, Canberra’s security and intelligence agencies have dominated the making of China policy. ‘Pushing back’ now assumes the status of near-canonical doctrine.” Raby sees inconsistency at the very heart of Australia’s China policy which “talks the talk of engagement” but “walks the walk of competition and containment”.

Curran puts Raby’s argument into context by summarising four periods in Australian history marked by intense antagonism towards China. They include the gold rushes of the 1850s, the 1880s push towards Federation and the 1960s Cold War. Since 2012, the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments have rekindled this antagonism by defying President Xi Jinping’s ‘assertive projection of Chinese power’.

Warwick U3A tutor Neil Bonnell, who has been conducting a China class since 2005, says the major change he has seen in that time is the sheer volume of news and intelligence about China that is available to the public.

“My material in 2005 was gleaned from press reports, mainly The Australian, also the South China Morning Post on-line. The best (TV) material was from the ABC’s Foreign Correspondent.”

Then as now, Mr.Bonnell relied on Rowan Callick as “the most knowledgeable local authority on China that I have come across”.

The 33^rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre passed with little reported trouble, given that authorities in Hong Kong clamped down on planned rallies. Hundreds gathered at peaceful candlelight vigils in Taiwan and in Hong Kong. Some nations defied authorities by lighting candles in embassy windows.

The US State Department’s view:

“We commemorate the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, where tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters peacefully joined together to call for democracy, accountability, freedom, and rule of law. The 50-day protest ended abruptly on June 4, 1989, with a brutal assault by the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military. Countless numbers were imprisoned and the number of deaths is still unknown today.

“Today, the struggle for democracy and freedom continues to echo in Hong Kong, where the annual vigil to commemorate the massacre in Tiananmen Square was banned by the PRC and Hong Kong authorities in an attempt to suppress the memories of that day.”

To the future, then. As Geoff Raby states, Canberra will “be taken less seriously and be less respected by regional partners if it is not able to manage its relations with China”. By aligning itself so closely to the US, Australia is also identified as a strategic competitor to Beijing.

There is speculation that Australia can perhaps build a bridge to China by persuading its Quad partners (the US, Japan and India) to offer China a seat at that table. It would become the less-catchy ‘Quin,’ but in the scheme of things, that’s a small quibble. (Somehow reminds me of a song..Ed)

All we need now is a chief negotiator who understands the Asian fear of losing face (being publicly humiliated). It’s not that hard to understand.

(If you did not know about our new CD, find it here)

The global rise of Green politics

global-green-politics — Stephen Bates (Brisbane)

From grass roots beginnings as an anti-war/anti-nuclear movement in the 1960s and 1970s, the Green party has grown to be a global force in politics. Our 2022 election clearly shows the rise of the Australian Greens, which traces its origins to Tasmania in 1972. From just one Federal member in 1992, the Greens now have 22 State MPs, 4 Federal MPs, up to 12 seats in the Senate and 134 councillors in local government.

Photos L-R: Stephen Bates (Brisbane), Max Chandler-Mather (Griffith), Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Ryan), Penny Allman-Payne (Senate for Queensland).

Just over 12% of eligible voters gave The Australian Greens their primary vote in the May 21 Federal election, the party’s best result since formation in 1992. The Australian Greens went from holding one seat in Federal Parliament in 2019 to four seats this time around. While the polls show that 2.2 million people gave their primary vote to the Greens, preferences made by Green voters also helped oust the Liberal party. If current trends continue, the Greens could hold as many as 12 Senate seats, double its 2019 tally.

What Greens leader Adam Bandt dubbed a ‘Greenslide’ on May 21 resulted in key Brisbane suburbs with Green MPs in both State and Federal Parliament.

This is quite a growth path from a grass roots Tasmanian organisation which first ran for Parliament in 1972 and won its first Senate seat in 1990. The Greens now have 16 MPs in State governments and six in the ACT Government. The Greens are also a force in local government, with 94 councillors in New South Wales and Victoria and another 40 in other States and Territories, including two in the Northern Territory.

Despite their influence in local politics, the Greens will be seen to best effect whenever the Senate is asked to approve bills which go against the party’s environmental and sustainability policies.

Despite Labor this week winning two extra seats (77 in total), they will still have to work with up to 12 independents, as well as the four Green MPs.

The conservative forces that ruled this country for almost a decade would say the swing to Greens and Independents will make Australia ‘ungovernable’. What’s needed (as one can now hear as a faint echo from the days of Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison), is a strong government with a clear mandate (and a strong border, all 59,681 kms of it). This time, more Australian voters have said no to being ruled by major parties, even if, as it turns out, we’ll end up governed by a Labor party with a two-seat majority in the lower house.

We should have seen this coming. Political parties have been falling out of favour with the public for decades. The Pew Research Centre concluded from a survey of voters in 14 European countries that few express positive sentiments towards political parties.

Only six parties (of the 59 tested) were viewed favourably by half or more of the population. Populist parties across Europe also received largely poor reviews. The Pew research found that of the 21 populist parties it asked about in the survey, only six received positive reviews. (all were part of the government in their respective countries).

There are at least 80 Green parties around the world and all subscribe to much the same principles and aims espoused by the Australian Greens.

The philosophy is anchored in what Greens call the four pillars – peace and non-violence, ecological sustainability, participatory democracy, and economic and social justice.

Council for Foreign Relations writer James McBride says the climate change debate has enhanced the rise of the Greens from a one-issue party to a group with the ability to hold key positions in government.

But he adds that the movement remains divided over issues such as nuclear energy, military force, foreign policy, and co-operation with right-wing and populist parties.

For example, the Alliance 90/Greens members of Germany’s government have advocated for stronger Western support for Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

According to the Global Green Network, some party members hold key positions in European governments. For example, Germany’s Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is chair of the Alliance 90/Greens party.

Like so many Green parties around the world, Alliance 90/Greens grew out of student protests and anti-war/anti-nuclear movements in the 1960s and 1970s. The present-day German party is a merger between two Green parties and Alliance 90, which describes itself as ‘Centre-Left’. Having finished in third place with 14.8% of the votes, the party entered coalition talks with the centre-right FDP and socialist SPD, eventually joining a coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Greens have five ministers in the Cabinet.

This insight into European politics does, to some extent, predict the future for Australia’s newbie Green politicians, taking their lead from veteran Adam Bandt. But there is more trenchant opposition to Greens here than there is in cosmopolitan Europe. In Australia, the Greens are seen by conservative forces as anti-farming, anti-coal and anti-development. At times, the more ardently left Greens have given the establishment cause to think so.

Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, interviewed on ABC Breakfast this week, reiterated (his view of) the conservative country party’s positions on coal. He advocated nuclear energy (so coal production workers can keep their jobs) and stressed that Australia should hold firm to a 2050 zero emissions deadline.

Two things about this interview: hello, he’s not leader any more. So why did the ABC interview Barnaby rather than the incoming leader, David Littleproud? Secondly, has the National Party learned anything from the relatively huge swing to Greens and independents on May 21? Or is it just that Barnaby is (still) allowed to speak for them, enhanced by the media’s constant quest for ‘colour’ and controversy.

As James McBride observes, Green parties all tend to share the same four principles, but more broadly include opposition to war and weapons industries, especially nuclear weapons. The Greens are sceptical about global trade arrangements and consumerist industrial society.

“They have a preference for decentralised decision-making and localism, a commitment to social justice, racial and economic equality, and women’s empowerment.”

Underpinning this story is the Global Green New Deal, an initiative launched in 2021 to accelerate the pace of cleaning up industry and reducing CO2 emissions.

As you’d expect, the G7 spends proportionately more on clean industry initiatives. The GGND states that high-income OECD countries spend at least 1% of their GDP over two years aimed at reducing carbon dependency. Developing economies should also spend at least 1% of GDP on improving clean water and sanitation for the poor and reducing carbon dependency.

The Guardian reported last year that while many government leaders had promised to “build back better” from the pandemic, few countries were investing in the new infrastructure needed. Research by Vivid Economics found that about a tenth of the $17 trillion being spent globally to rescue stricken economies was going on projects that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions or restore nature.

Incoming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in his victory speech on election night that Australia could become “a renewable energy superpower”. Australians who voted Green 1/Labor 2 after enduring the trauma from climate change storms, bushfires and floods will probably hold him to that.

Australia enters a brave new world

crossbench-history-green — Australia’s crossbench in history. Chart courtesy of Ben Raue

The reactions to Labor’s somewhat unexpected election win on Saturday night have reflected the about-turns that occur when the political climate changes. As always, there were positive opportunities for some. Sydney University wasted no time congratulating incoming PM Anthony Albanese, an alumni member. It should also be noted that former Prime Ministers who attended Sydney University included Gough Whitlam, John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull. So much for universities being the breeding ground of Marxists.

Former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull took to social media to wish Albo (as he is known in Aussie shorthand), all success in his new job ‘from one good bloke to another’.

Another former PM, John Howard, was drafted late into the Liberal campaign to mix it up in marginal Sydney seats in an election Howard said was ‘too tight to call’. As far as I can tell, Mr Howard has not had anything to say in the aftermath of Saturday’s poll. Why would he?

The Guardian’s top satirist, First Dog on the Moon, gave a harsh farewell to Scott Morrison’s government: “Good riddance you jabbering ghouls.” At the same time, the cartoonist was sharpening his quill ready to skewer the incoming PM. One dog says “I love Albo, I really do” while the other says Albo is a “gazillionaire landlord with a bunch of properties”. (His register of interests doesn’t indicate this. Ed) It won’t take long for the honeymoon to end.

Fair to say the Labor Party did not win this election – rather, the Liberal Party lost it, giving up seats not only to Labor but the Greens and Independents. The Greens improved their national vote, up 1.9% to 12.3%. This might give you some clue to the voting tendencies of young voters. As polls had shown, the 18-34 cohort was most worried about climate change. Given that neither of the major parties had bold things to say in the campaign about the climate crisis, it’s not surprising that young people would vote Green.

My favourite pundit accurately predicted the partial disintegration of the major parties vote in favour of independents. Veteran blogger Everald Compton wrote an unequivocal essay detailing why the Liberals would lose seats (and where) and who would gain. He was mostly right.

Top of Everald’s wish list was that we would end up with a Prime Minister who is neither Albo or ScoMo. Well that didn’t quite happen, but as the 90-year-old blogger rightly asked:

“Why have we reached this point where politics is at its lowest ebb of my lifetime. Indeed, a huge percentage of voters rank it as the lowest of the low?

“The cause is that political parties on both right and left are tightly controlled by small groups of power brokers who produce privileges for elite people, while arrogantly insisting that it is all really ultra democratic.”

The mainstream media, represented for the most by Rupert Murdoch’s News Ltd., is still to fully mount a persuasive argument as to how and why their editorials got it so wrong.

Retired News executive Chris Mitchell came out swinging, blaming journalists, particularly the ABC, for inaccurately portraying Scott Morrison as someone who had a problem with women.

Peta Credlin and others on the conservative channel Sky News had some predictably caustic things to say which lost their sting as a result of the undeniable swing to Labor, Greens and Independents.

Former PM Kevin Rudd, who is leading a campaign for an inquiry into News Corp and the power it wields, posted a telling graph on social media. It showed that in the lead up to the election, News Corp front pages ran 188 pro-Liberal stories, compared with just 38 for Labor and 99 ‘neutral’. Our State newspaper, the Courier-Mail, carried more than a few anti-Labor stories, going hard with an ‘Albo’s S****show’, story based on the Labor leader’s first campaign gaffes, including not knowing the current official interest rate. (By the bye, I didn’t know what it was either).

The media in general will have some dungeon-searching to do, given the extent to which their political writers failed to see the rout coming, particularly Western Australia’s swing against the Liberals.

American broadcaster CNN reported the election result as a clear win for climate action. CNN said the election showed a strong swing towards Greens candidates and Independents who demanded emissions cuts far above the commitments made by the ruling conservative coalition.

CNN said the climate crisis was one of the defining issues of the election, as one of the few points of difference between the Coalition and Labor, and a key concern of voters, according to polls.

Marija Taflaga, lecturer in politics and international relations at the Australian National University, said the swing towards the Greens was remarkable. “I think everyone has been taken by surprise by these results…I think it will mean there will be greater and faster action on climate change more broadly.”

Labor has promised to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050, partly by strengthening the mechanism used to pressure companies to make cuts.

As the Prime Minister-elect headed to Tokyo for talks with the leaders of the US, India and Japan, China made its first official comment on the election win.

As the ABC reported, Beijing showed it is willing to patch things up with the newly elected Albanese government after more than two years of a cool relationship with the former government.

Premier Li Keqiang’s congratulatory message used ‘warm language’ referencing the Whitlam Labor government’s establishment of diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic 50 years ago.

Mr Li said China was “ready to work with the Australian side to review the past, face the future, uphold principles of mutual respect, mutual benefit.”

While vote counting continues (it could take a week or more to decide the close seats), one thing is certain, this government will have the largest cross-bench in our history.

The cross-bench refers to independent politicians who usually vote with the government but can and will cross the floor to vote with the opposition if so moved. Australia has only ever had between three and five cross-benchers.

This time around, there will be 15 and maybe more Green and Independent politicians helping to inform the government of the day.

As Everald Compton said last Friday, this will create a long overdue and stable government that achieves progress and prosperity with justice and compassion.

“The Coalition will be decimated and divided and in need of total reform as they have self-destructed.

“The remnants of the Liberal Party will break up, with the Pentecostals separating from the Moderates. The National Party, having lost seats, will have a bitter leadership turmoil. Their extreme right will join with the Pentecostals.” (Everald was wrong about the National Party losing seats- they were re-elected in all of the seats they held before the election. Otherwise, his predictions are pretty accurate. Ed)

The one big loser from Saturday’s election is the United Australia Party, which reportedly spent $100 million trying to make an impact. UAP won no seats and only improved its vote by 1.7% to 4.1%. By contrast, the Legalise Cannabis Party attracted more than 75,000 Senate votes on a shoe-string budget and may gain a Senate seat, at the expense of perennial campaigner Pauline Hanson.

The shape of things to come may be that Albanese’s Labor government will need support from the cross-bench to introduce new policy. The numbers so far suggest Labor should be able to govern in its own right. Failing that, welcome to a European-style government where Greens and Independents have the final say. It’s not a bad thing.