Friday on My Mind Archives - Page 7 of 31

Covid- it’s everywhere

covid-masks-pandemic — Washing line 2022 Willfried Wende – www.pixabay

On a quick shopping trip this week, it seemed that every second person was wearing a Covid mask, even though there is no legal obligation to do so. Friends, relatives, neighbours and friends of friends are either in isolation because of a positive RAT test or actually have Covid-19. There’s been a nasty flu getting around South-East Queensland at the same time. The only way to tell one from the other is to take a Rapid Antigen Test.

The statistics are a bit scary. The only saving grace is that the Omicron variants are said to be ‘milder’ than the Delta strain which was rampant in 2020.

As of this morning, Queensland reported 45, 824 active cases, including 6,366 new cases in the previous 24 hours. There were 907 hospitalisations and 14 patients in Intensive Care Units. There have been 73 deaths (people who died with Covid) this week alone.

There are many unanswered questions about this third wave of the Omicron variant. Like, how come we haven’t had it? Knock on wood. Or why do some people get “long Covid’’ where symptoms persist for months?

If you look at the historical charts, you have to wonder why governments decided to take their collective feet off the pedals of the crowd control machine.

On December 16, 2021, Queensland had 17 cases (a weekly average of 9). Then we opened the borders, relaxed the mask mandate and other rules like contact tracing which had thus far kept the virus out of Queensland.

By January 17, 2022, new cases had spiked to 31,056. While numbers have since fallen away, the State reported 32, 355 new cases (between July 11 and 15), with hospitalisation rates between 800 and 900.

Cumulatively, Queensland has now recorded 1.63 million cases (equates to 32% of the population) and 1,388 deaths. So much for Omicron being more infectious but less serious than Delta.

Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard has been quoted that catching Covid is “inevitable”. Ironically former chief health officer Jeanette Young, now Governor of Queensland, was also taken down by the virus.

Did you know that the entire Queensland Maroons rugby league team held a fan day in Warwick last week? The visit started with a sold-out dinner on Tuesday night with guest speakers including Maroons coach Billy Slater. Next day there was a street parade, breakfast in the park, coaching clinics for children and then the Maroons had a training session at the local footie oval. A few days later, two members of the team, Cameron Munster and Murray Taulagi tested positive for Covid and were unable to play in the decider on Wednesday.

I did notice that team members wore masks as they mingled with the thousands of fans who turned out to meet and greet.

Which brings me back to people wearing masks – in the street, in cafes, shopping centres and pharmacies. The latter used to insist on customers wearing a mask, but without the muscle of a state-mandated instruction, they can only make polite suggestions.

Remember the days of close contacts and contact tracing? The border closures, closed-down cafes and bars? Apart from hospitals, organisations with a Covid policy and employers, it seems you don’t have to prove you are double vaccinated. Hardly anyone checks to see the green tick on your phone. I was only asked to do so twice on a three-week trip to Tasmania in April. We did find you had to wear masks on public transport in Victoria and Tasmania (as you do in Queensland, although many do not wear masks).

An approved style of mask is your first line of defence to avoid being infected by Covid-laced aerial droplets. Second line is to stay home as much as possible.

The people I feel for are those who cannot avoid being in close quarters with other people (aged care homes, prisons, detention centres etc). It is now well known that residents in aged care are vulnerable; not only because of their living circumstances, but also because most are 75 and over and in the high-risk category.

Nationally there have been 2,881 deaths in aged care homes since the pandemic began in early 2020 and 2,580 residential aged care facilities have had an outbreak during that time. It’s probably misleading to include those two facts in the same sentence because the mind goes: ‘Hey, that’s an average of one death for each facility.’
The Guardian reported yesterday that 100 aged care residents are dying with Covid each week, with more than 700 current outbreaks. The industry fears that two-thirds of aged care homes across Australia may be grappling with outbreaks over the next six weeks.

Amid reports of a Covid outbreak on a cruise ship anchored in the Brisbane River, I went looking for places in the world where the virus had been contained. Unhappily, the virus has caught up with some of the 10 or so island countries which, until the end of 2021, had managed to stay safe. They included Nauru, which went from zero cases in late 2021 to 40% of the population being infected. Nauru, as you may or may not know, is ‘home’ to 129 asylum seekers, most of whom have been on the island since 2012.

The World Health Organisation confirms that there are currently 121 new cases in Nauru and a cumulative 6,237 cases (and one death) since January 2022.

Citing global numbers, the WHO says that as of July 11 there have been 552.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6.34 million deaths. As of 2 July 2022, a total of 12.03 billion vaccine doses had been administered. As for the United States, 87 million cases have been recorded since early 2020 and 1.02 million deaths. Donald Trump, we’re looking at you.

Compare that with Australia – 10,515 deaths since the first cases were seen in February 2020.

This takes me back to an early report from Seattle, the US city that gave the world the TV soap opera ‘Grey’s Anatomy’. A community choir had met for a rehearsal in the early days of Covid when nobody knew what we were dealing with.

As Live Science recalls, 52 people were unknowingly infected with Corona virus at a choir practice in Mount Vernon, Washington. The event led to the deaths of two people.

The practice happened on March 10, roughly two weeks before Washington Governor Jay Inslee issued a ‘stay home stay healthy’ executive order, barring social gatherings and non-essential travel.

That story shocked Australian choral singers. Most community choir directors I knew decided to cancel rehearsals for the foreseeable future. We mucked around on Zoom for a while and had a few tentative practices outside, but it just wasn’t the same. Eventually in 2021, as case numbers began to fall, choirs and orchestras started rehearsing again under controlled circumstances.

Experts told us that singing in a closed room was a sure-fire way to catch the virus – 20 or 30 people spraying droplets everywhere. Nobody said anything about 52,000 people in a footie stadium shouting and screaming for 80 minutes. Yes, it was an open-air event, but even so, those patrons walked in and out of the venue, used the public toilets and struggled back and forth along packed aisles, spilling beer and spreading potentially lethal aerial droplets around. Because Queensland won the State of Origin series, there was lots of hugging, kissing and selfie-posing. Then they all got on trains and buses, noisily singing the team song on the way home.

Don’t get me started. (Yes, but ‘we’ won – wasn’t it sweet? Ed)

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After the floods, the clean-up

floods-clean-up — O.O Madsen Bridge, image by Sandra Wilson, May 13, 2022

I had no sooner finished writing about floods in Warwick when it started raining again. I’d written the lead article for our local U3A newsletter last week, recounting the times since 2000 the Condamine River had closed the main bridge into town.

The answer (so far) is four – October 2010, January 2011, January 2013 and May 2022, when the river rose above 6.5m. Closing the bridge effectively cleaves the town in two,as alternative routes will also be under water if this happens. This time, the closure was for only 24 hours; but in 2013, the highway was cut for days, as the river peaked at 7.21m.

The O(tto) O(ttosen) Madsen Bridge is not just the link across the Condamine River, it is a national monument. The 58-year-old bridge is a vital link between Brisbane and Sydney, carrying traffic across the bridge from the Cunningham to New England highways.

Spanning 100m across the Condamine River, the O.O. Madsen Bridge was opened in 1964. It is dedicated to Otto Madsen, who was State MLA for Warwick from 1947–1963 and served as a Minister in the Nicklin Government between 1957 and 1963. If you have ever taken the inland highway to or from New South Wales, you’ll have driven across it.

On May 13 this year, after an early call from a friend, we did a dash to the supermarket and got safely home again before the bridge closed. Twenty-four hours later (the rain having stopped) the river level dropped and the bridge re-opened.

It might seem churlish to complain about the minor inconvenience, given that so many parts of urban and rural Australia have been smashed multiple times by floods. The damage bill this year for South East Queensland and NSW alone is $4.38 billion.

In February this year, floods visited the Sunshine Coast, Lockyer Valley, Toowoomba, Gympie and Maryborough, to name a few regions. In late February, the northern NSW town of Lismore was badly flooded. Lismore copped it again a few weeks later. In some parts of town, the flood levels were so high houses and shops vanished beneath the waters.

This week, a major rain event revisited Sydney, the Blue Mountains and the Hawkesbury and Hunter regions of New South Wales. This is only three months after unprecedented rains inundated many NSW cities and towns. Apart from the drama, the danger, and loss of property, those affected by floods are almost always traumatised. Being forced to live through flood events twice within six months is more than anyone should have to bear.

Those of us who live on high and dry properties might blithely say “Oh well, you did have insurance, didn’t you?”

That’s a thorny question and one worth trying to shed some light on.

The latest data from the Insurance Council of Australia on the 2022 South East Queensland and Northern NSW floods tells a story.

Data from June shows that of the 225,000 claims made, 68,000 have been settled, leaving 157,000 claims still outstanding,

Three to six months after flood events in SEQ and NSW, 70% of those who made claims are still waiting. To be fair to insurers, a claims assessor must physically visit the property to which the claim applies. The assessor then makes a recommendation and the claims department makes a decision. It all takes time.

Typically, those badly affected by natural disasters like bush fires and floods turn to State and Federal government for help.

New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet said in March this year the floods then affecting NSW were a “one-in-one-thousand-year event”. But that’s not what science, or the insurance industry, suggests, according to University of Melbourne academic Antonia Settle. The Conversation says that Australian home owners and businesses are facing escalating insurance costs in areas prone to fires, cyclones and floods.

The trend is being driven by the frequency and severity of extreme weather events as the global climate continues to change.

Premiums have risen sharply over a decade, as insurers count the cost of insurance claims and factor in future risks. Rising insurance premiums are creating a crisis of under-insurance in Australia, Settle says.
Under-insurance has been a problem for untold thousands whose houses were wrecked by floods. In some cases, insurers have no option but to offer a cash payment rather than re-instate what has been damaged or destroyed. (The level of insurance the policyholder has chosen will not cover the cost of a repair or rebuild).

Settle writes that the two main ways to reduce insurance premiums are to limit global warming (not something Australia can achieve on its own) or reduce the damage caused by extreme events.

This means constructing more disaster-resistant buildings, or not rebuilding in high-risk areas (Ed: obviously, do not build houses (or railways) on flood plains).

The (Morrison) Federal government put most of its eggs in a different basket. Its plan was to subsidise insurance premiums in northern Australia, in response to an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission investigation in 2020.

The ACCC’s final report into insurance affordability found the average cost of home and contents insurance in cyclone-prone northern Australia was almost double the rest of Australia. The rate of non-insurance was almost double – 20% compared with 11%.

Former PM Scott Morrison copped harsh criticism for this policy, as he did for his tardy response to the Lismore floods and before that, not funding urgent requests for more fire-fighting aircraft during the Black Summer bush fires.

Our globe-trotting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, keen to mend fences, confirmed he would visit flood-affected towns along the Hawkesbury River when he touched down yesterday from a hectic schedule of visits to Europe. This is such a contrast to his predecessor’s weak and belated responses to bush fires and floods.

Meanwhile on the Southern Downs, more rare winter rain is causing the saturated ground to send run-off into the catchment. Relatively few properties in Warwick are prone to flooding, but the damage in low-lying areas is clearly evident. As a farmer who lives on the banks of the Condamine explained, he has seen six floods in the past 18 months, although only one forced the closure of the O. O. Madsen Bridge.

If you walk along the riverbank today, you will see visible signs of flood damage to fences, posts, park benches, trees, light poles and any infrastructure that happened to be in the way of rushing flood waters (the dog park, which has now been completely dismantled, as an acknowledgement of defeat after being knocked over four times). Most damage has been caused to fences, which simply collapse under the weight of water and debris.

BlazeAid, a volunteer organisation initially set up as a response to the aftermath of bush fires, has set up a base camp at Warwick Showgrounds. The base camp in Warwick was established last month to carry out the organisation’s most valued work – rebuilding fences destroyed by fires or floods.

Warwick coordinator Brad Young is very pleased with the response to the camp.“BlazeAid volunteers have come from all over, including WA, Vic, NSW, ACT and QLD,” he said, adding, “We have currently 38 properties on the books, with an estimated 100 kilometres of fencing to repair, rebuild and clean.”

BlazeAid was formed in 2009 after the Black Saturday bush fires in Victoria. Founders Kevin and Rhonda Butler created the charity as a way for retired farmers, tradespeople and others to volunteer on properties affected by natural disaster. BlazeAid has to date completed more than 15,000 kilometres of fencing around Australia, all built by volunteers and funded by donations.

It’s never too late to volunteer.

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Arthritis and the global business of hip replacements

arthritis-hip-replacements — Photo by www.pixabay.com

Who’d have known there were 2.150 million Australians who suffer from arthritis? It was one of the questions in the 2021 Census (asking about long-term health problems). I don’t recall answering the question, but don’t doubt that I ticked the top 3 boxes.

The three biggest long term health issues in Australia are: mental health, arthritis and asthma.

The 2021 Census was the first time the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) asked about diagnosed long-term health conditions. Two million-plus people reported having at least one of the top three – mental health (2,231,543), arthritis (2,150,396) and asthma (2,068,020).

Of those who responded to the survey, 4.78 million reported having one of the 10 long-term health conditions; 1.49 million reported having two of the health conditions and 772,142 had three or more.

Let’s focus on health issue number two – arthritis. There’s a bit of it in my family and when the weather is cold or I have been playing guitar, typing or weeding, ‘Arthur’ reminds me he is king of my castle.

So far it is just swollen hand joints (thumb and pinkie) and occasional pain in the hip and femur. Despite having major surgery on both knees in 1969, I’ve ducked the serious inflammation that attacks hips and knees.

I once met the late jazz musician, Don Burroughs, who suffered with arthritis in later life. He told me he’d successfully taught himself different techniques for playing clarinet, flute and saxophone. Veteran guitarists will tell you similar stories of how to play, holding the instrument in different positions.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shed some light on the subject in 2020 with a report that looked at an array of musculo-skeletal conditions that affect the bones, muscles and joints. These conditions include long-term (chronic) conditions such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile arthritis, back pain and problems, gout, and osteoporosis or osteopenia (low bone density).

The latter caught my attention as I recently checked in with the Bone Bus and had scans done of my hips, knees, spine and upper arms.

The Bone Bus is a travelling clinic with the sole purpose of measuring patients’ bone density. The scan is one of three procedures people over 70 can have that is wholly funded by Medicare. I had the pneumonia and shingles vaccines about 18 months ago. But ever since then, I was away travelling when the bone bus came to town.

According to John Hopkins Medicine, a bone density test is used mainly to diagnose osteopenia and osteoporosis. It is also used to determine your future fracture risk.

I have not seen a doctor about my scan yet (it can take a week to see a GP in this town – or any other for that matter), but I’m fairly relaxed about it. I’ve had a couple of tumbles in the garden and in the house in recent years and suffered only bruises of the flesh and ego.

Not so for some of my peers, who have either had a hip or knee replacement or fractured a hip after a fall.

Friends who broke a hip report a good rate of recovery. One friend was back driving six weeks later. Another was getting about town on a walking stick within a month.

The main issue when an older person falls and fractures a hip is the risk of death. The one-year mortality rate after hip fracture is 21%, once the fracture is surgically addressed. If not, the one-year mortality is about 70%.

This means 4 out of 5 older persons will survive the first year after a hip fracture. This mortality rate has remained unchanged since the 1980s.

The Conversation goes one step further, saying a hip fracture can often be a ‘death sentence’. The statistics around hip fractures in the elderly are alarming, notably that 27% of hip fractures occurred after a fall in an aged care facility.

Age is a key risk factor, with hip fractures more likely to occur in those aged 65 or older. They’re primarily a result of a fall, or when the hip collides with a solid object such as a kitchen bench. However, they can also occur when there has been little or no trauma.

Cognitive impairment such as dementia can increase the risk of falling. Frailty, poor vision, the use of a combination of medications, and trip hazards in the home also increase the likelihood of falls. Osteoporosis, a disease characterised by low bone mass and degradation of bone tissue, is another significant risk factor for hip fractures.

Data from the AIHW collated in 2017 found that 93% of new hip fractures were the result of a fall-related injury, of which 87% were minimal trauma (low-impact) falls. Nearly half (48%) occurred in the person’s private home, and, as mentioned, 27% occurred in an aged care facility.

Falls and fractures aside, if your hips are problematic, replacement surgery with advanced robotics and titanium prosthetics is the preferred option to waiting for the inevitable fall.

The hip replacement procedure has improved greatly since it started to become commonplace in the early 1990s. This YouTube video explains by animation how a compromised hip joint is replaced.

Osteoarthritis is usually the condition that leads to requiring a hip replacement. People with bad hips do have options (first line of treatment is anti-inflammatory drugs). Eventually, though, GPs are more likely to suggest a hip replacement than not. The technology for the procedure has improved to the point where the successful, pain-free recovery rate is above 95% and 90%-95% at the 10-year mark.

Surgeons have been able to replace worn-out or diseased hip joints since the 1960s, but it wasn’t until the late 1980s that people began actively seeking it out as an option.

About 44,000 Australians sign up for a hip replacement every year with more than 90% reporting a good outcome.

An article attributed to Fortune Business Insights shows that hip replacement surgery is a $US6.57 billion global business. Despite a 12.1% decline in turnover through 2020 (as Covid postponed elective surgeries), the business of replacing hips is huge.

Globe Newswire reported that the global market size is projected to hit US9.91 billion by 2028. The forecast growth is due to the “growing prevalence of osteoarthritis in the geriatric community”.

The market’s growth is also attributable to “favourable health reimbursement policies”.

We are fortunate in Australia that such procedures are paid for by Medicare, albeit after a lengthy waiting period. A hip replacement can cost between $19,439 and $42,007 (median $26,350). You probably know people who have had both hips done. Three cheers for free medical care (introduced by Gough Whitlam in 1974 and further enhanced by Medicare in 1984).

Meanwhile I should, I know I should, go back to the aged person’s gym that focuses on stretching and flexing, working on the all-important core strength which helps us keep our balance.

As for knees, which are more problematic, I already wrote about that.

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The Future for Refugees in Rural Australia

future-refugees-regional — Chart by ASRC

Australians who support asylum seekers and refugees have been optimistic of improved policy since the Labor Party won the Federal election on May 24. As you can see by the above chart, there is daylight between the tough policies of the former government and the more compassionate policies of Labor and The Greens.

While we wait for clearer direction from the new government, Australians who care about refugees ramped up their efforts for Refugee Week (June 19-25). In Warwick, we held our first-ever Welcome Walk, when a group of 40 walked the footpaths of Warwick. The 3.5 kms route we took on Sunday was symbolic of the distance from the centre of Kabul in Afghanistan to Kabul Airport. As you’d know, there was a multi-national evacuation response when the Taliban stormed the capital last August.

For Australia’s part, some 4,000 Afghans with Australian visas made it on to evacuation flights and ended up here. But thousands more, who rushed the airport in panic and frustration, were left stranded. It’s been a similar scene in Ukraine, with some 8 million refugees streaming across borders into Poland and other neighbouring countries.

About 70% of refugees seek refuge in neighbouring countries. Nevertheless, there are 38,513 people (August 2021) seeking asylum in Australia, including 4,452 children. Many groups and individuals in Australia actively try to help those who have been granted refugee status. Government policies tend to favour resettlement of refugees in regional and rural areas. But welfare organisations have been critical of the lack of support for refugee resettlement in country Australia.

A study by the University of South Australia found that rural and regional schools can be under-resourced and ill-prepared to support refugees and their families. UniSA researcher Jennifer Brown said policy makers needed to better understand the nuances of regional and rural communities to help them welcome refugees. She said many rural schools felt under-supported and uncertain about how best to help.

“Appropriate resourcing for rural schools is a starting point, but training and opportunities for inter–cultural learning and engagement must also occur within communities if we are really to deliver change.”

As you can see from the chart above, there’s a wide gulf between the Liberal National Party’s policies on refugees and those of Labor and The Greens.

As an example, the Albanese government stood by a pre-election promise and brought the Nadesalingham family back to Biloela. The reason the Tamil family’s case has become so well known is that a grass-roots group much like ours helped get the story out and campaign for the family.

We are members of the Southern Downs Refugee and Migrant Network, a small group or ordinary people who want to encourage Australians to accept refugees.

Warwick is a country town of some 15,000 people and to date we have no refugees living here. SDRAMN is currently supporting a family in Kabul while they seek visas for neighbouring Iran. We are affiliated with Rural Australians for Refugees, a grass-roots organisation that aims to support settlement of refugees in regional and rural towns.

Toowoomba, Australia’s largest inland city, has been a strong advocate for inviting refugees into their community. Since the mid-1990s, South Sudanese refugees began arriving in Toowoomba, 127 kms west of Brisbane. By 2021, the South Sudanese population had grown to 2,300. Refugees from Darfur and the Congo began arriving in the city, followed by thousands from Chad, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and the Middle East. In an Amnesty International submission to the Federal Government in 2021, Toowoomba Mayor Paul Antonio said that since the city decided in 2013 to become a Refugee Welcome Zone, the numbers of refugees arriving in Toowoomba had grown to a maximum 1,100 per year.

While we wait for the new government to turn its attention to refugee policy, support groups will continue to do what they do best – raising awareness and raising funds.

The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre held its annual Telethon on Monday June 20 and raised $1.650 million to help support asylum seekers and other groups who support refugees.

The ASRC does a lot of unheralded work with asylum seekers, including, since March 2021, finding homes for 138 people in three States after they were released from detention.

While the ASRC has a large budget and generous donors, small grass-roots support groups and individuals can make a difference. Warwick resident Sally Edwards decided to raise funds to bring a Ukranian family to Brisbane, where other family members live. Within weeks she had raised $25,000, aided by local media coverage, a garage sale and donations.

While the spotlight of public attention has switched from Afghanistan to Ukraine, the world refugee problem is huge and complex. The UNHCR says there are “at least” 89.3 million people around the world who have been forced to flee their homes. Among them are nearly 27.1 million refugees, around half of whom are under the age of 18.

In Australia, our number one issue is what the previous government referred to as the “legacy case-load”. Approximately 30,000 asylum seekers arrived in Australia by boat between 13 August 2012 and 1 January 2014. (The legacy case-load also includes babies born in Australia to asylum seekers in this category). They arrived in Australia during the Labor government’s term of office and were barred from making an application for protection for up to four years following their arrival. The succeeding Coalition government introduced exceptional legislative restrictions on their eligibility for protection visas.

The murky history of the legacy cases starts with Julia Gillard’s Labor government, which commissioned a report in 2012 as to how to handle the growing influx of ‘boat people’. Measures taken by Gillard included resuming the controversial offshore processing policy.

Then came the Abbott Government and immigration minister Scott Morrison, who reintroduced Temporary Protection Visas. Morrison stated that the government would not give a permanent visa to anyone who had arrived by boat. In 2014, the Abbott government also denied access to publicly funded legal assistance to all who had arrived in Australia without a valid visa, further delaying processing of refugee claims.

The latest data from the Department of Home Affairs says that 93% of the 31,112 legacy cases have been ‘decided’. Of the 29,012 resolved cases, 5,191 were granted three-year Temporary Protection Visas (TPV) and 13,136 were given five-year Safe Haven Enterprise Visas (SHEV). The department has 2,110 cases that have not been resolved and another 870 that were refused but are seeking merit reviews. People granted a TPV or SHEV can work, get Medicare and receive short-term counselling for torture and trauma. Children under 18 can attend school.

It is important to note that people with these types of visas must re-apply for them on a regular basis. The new government has not elaborated on its plan for permanent resettlement for all refugees

The extensive delays to processing claims has caused some asylum seekers to develop a clinical syndrome different from other trauma-related mental disorders. Psychiatrists have labelled this ‘protracted asylum seeker syndrome’ and pointed to the heightened risk of suicide among this group.

The important step for asylum seekers is to have their application for asylum heard. The sticking point is the Australian Government’s entrenched stance on “Illegal maritime arrivals”. Apart from re-defining the term to “irregular”, the Albanese Government needs to offer this group of people some certainty about their future in Australia. It’s just the decent thing to do.

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Stagflation, recession and the price of lettuce

recession-inflation-lettuce — staglation and lettuce (Photo Pixabay.com)

It used to be that using the R word in a headline was tantamount to a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I added ‘lettuce’ to diminish the risk.

Those inventive purveyors of ‘memes’ (visual satire), have been going on about the supposed price of lettuces in Australia – ‘tip of the iceberg’ and suchlike puns. I tend to invoke the Darryl Kerrigan mantra when confronted with over-priced food items (as much as $11). Darryl, from the Australian film The Castle, is fond of saying ‘tell them they’re dreaming’ when told how much someone wants for a second-hand item.

You may have noticed the proliferation of articles aimed at making your dollar go further at the supermarket (and butcher). The two things these shopping guide articles have in common is they all insist on having a plan (a weekly menu) and many of them advise going quasi-vegetarian.

A wise friend of mind from a large family adds a third piece of advice when prices are starting to rise, as they have been doing since March this year.

“I shop around and always look for what’s reasonable. Cauliflowers are quite cheap at the moment, so I bought a couple, whipped up a white sauce, added some bacon and there’s a nice lunch right there.”

She Who Goes by Various Acronyms specialises in making nutritious soups, which also go well with the cold weather. All she needs is a packet of soup mix, pumpkin, sweet potato, carrots and whatever else is affordable at the (organic) fruit and vegie shop.

Now I’m going to delve into global inflation, why it’s happening and what can be done about it. We are not yet in times of stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment/low wages),but watch this space. We all know that the price of fuel, energy and food is rising rapidly. Australia’s official inflation rate increased to 5.1% in the March quarter, due to higher construction costs and fuel prices.

Unemployment may start to rise once the first batch of house builders (who quoted on a fixed price) go broke because of the rising cost of timber and other building materials. Reserve Bank governor Phillip Lowe told the ABC’s 7.30 he believed inflation could go to 7% by the end of the year (as it is now in the UK)

As happened to the Whitlam government in the early 1970s, Anthony Albanese’s Labor government is taking their turn at the wheel just as the perfect economic storm is breaking. The war in Ukraine, a weakening Australian dollar, rising automotive fuel price, an energy crisis and lingering disruption to the supply chain are just some of the challenges.

As so often happens when you write a weekly opinion piece, someone else will get to the topic first, as economic commentator Alan Kohler did in the New Daily.

Kohler’s piece deals with “the two great stupidities behind our inflation”.

“Unlike previous episodes, this inflation is NOT caused by galloping consumer demand or runaway wages, which is what higher interest rates are designed to suppress, but by two colossal stupidities that are entirely impervious to the Reserve Bank.”

Kohler calls Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine ‘Stupid No 1’ pointing to trade embargoes and disruption to the global supply of fuel and commodities like coal.

So now we have an energy shock like that of 1973 (which led to a recession in 1974). Kohler the says the Reserve Bank of Australia is “trying to make sure we have a recession this year, by adding a credit squeeze to an energy shock”.

As we know, the RBA has raised official interest rates twice in recent months. Lowe told the ABC’s Leigh Sales interest rates could go as high as 2.5%, a rude shock, given that the RBA told the public (when?) there’d be no rate hike until 2024.

Kohler’s second ‘Stupid’ claim is Australia’s lack of a cohesive energy policy, including a “capacity mechanism”. By that he means paying someone to keep spare electricity generation capacity on tap to cover power station or grid failures.

The real culprit in rising inflation though is Australia’s supply chain, disrupted by two years of restrictions on movement due to the pandemic. Add to that the ongoing cycle of disruption to roads and railways caused by a series of extreme weather events and we’re in a bit of a pickle. The rising price of diesel was passed on to us as consumers by transport companies keen to keep the balance sheet in the black.

The previous Federal government reduced the amount of excise it levies on fuel but even so, it costs $200 or more to fill the tank of an SUV. I suspect the (Morrison) government’s rare show of generosity in this instance has been overlooked.

What do to about fuel excise is just one of hundreds of issues the Albanese government has on its plate right now, including global issues beyond its control.

The World Bank says the global economy is entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation”. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report says the conditions raise the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle and low-income economies alike.

Global growth is expected to slump from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022. This is well below the 4.1% anticipated in January.

“It is expected to hover around that pace over 2023-24, as the war in Ukraine disrupts activity, investment, and trade in the near term, pent-up demand fades, and fiscal and monetary policy accommodation is withdrawn.”

As a result of the damage from the pandemic and the war, the World Bank expects level of per capita income in developing economies to be 5% below its pre-pandemic trend.

“The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth,” World Bank President David Malpass said. “For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid.”

The risk is arguably highest in the US, which has seen inflation run past 8% in recent times, the highest in 40 years. Inflation was reported last Friday at 8.5% in May, up from 8.3% in April. The rise was widely reported as a trigger for Tuesday’s massive sell-off in global share markets. As Kohler observed, the fear is that central banks will raise interest rates in a bid to dampen inflation. But it might not work.

Even though Australia’s wage growth has stalled during the decade the Coalition were in charge, we are still better off than the average US worker. The average hourly minimum wage in Australia, at $20.33, is well above the US ($7.25) although 25 States pay more than $10 an hour, with California best, at $15 an hour.

It’s no surprise there are grave concerns in the US for those who are out of work or struggling to get by on low wages (and tips).

As in Australia, a booming house market has made housing unaffordable for many Americans. The Guardian said that 49% of people surveyed by Pew Research said affordable housing was a big problem in their community.

They say charity starts at home, so here’s my tip to help someone on a $100 a week food budget.

Beef casserole: buy 1kg chuck steak (about $8.99) and put it in a slow cooker with assorted vegetables ($7) and herbs. Let it brew all day then cook some rice and lash out for a French bread stick. That’s more than enough for two meals and gives you time to shop for the next two-day budget meal. As for the $8 lettuce, tell them they’re dreaming.

Tiananmen Square and the China Dilemma

tiananmen-square-china — Gough Whitlam meets Chairman Mao Tse Tung in 1973 Image courtesy of the National State Archives

We released a new CD around the time of the 33^rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, or as it is known by China’s government, ‘June Fourth Incident’. I mention this not as some outrageous plug for ‘merch’ but to draw your attention to the historic photo on the album cover. (Ed is now cringing slightly at the thought of plugging ‘merch’.)

It shows Prime Minister Gough Whitlam meeting China’s then-president, Mao Tse Tung in 1973. The photo, provided by the National Archives of Australia, portrays these unlikely comrades in a congenial setting. The photo was taken during Whitlam’s visit to China, the first by an Australian PM.

This year I started attending a U3A course called China Today, curated by long-time China-watcher Neil Bonnell. The key topics at the most recent meeting were the end of the volatile Covid lock-down in Shanghai and other cities, the 33^rd anniversary of Tiananmen Square and the pending appointment or re-appointment of the country’s next President. Not that we hear a lot about it here, but there has been speculation about the health of the incumbent, Xi Jinping.

Xi has been in charge of China since 2011 and presided over a burgeoning economy in an autocratic manner. He now faces some serious challenges, just as Australia’s new government battles to resume ‘normal’ relations with China.

The former LNP government fell out with China by taking an adversarial stance on sensitive issues. They include the decision to exclude Chinese technology company Huawei from participating in the rollout of 5G mobile technology in Australia. The Morrison government then announced it would conduct an inquiry into how Covid started (in China). Moreover, from 2018 the government became concerned over Chinese political influence in Australia’s governments, universities and media.

As the 2022 election approached, there was continuous negative feedback about the sale to China of ports in the Northern Territory and Chinese shareholdings in other Australian ports. (Despite the xenophobia this tends to produce, recent data on China’s level of investment in Australia (just 3% of the total direct foreign investment) suggest the boom is over).

All of these issues were handled by former Prime Minister Scott Morrison in a tactless manner, betraying that he did not fully understand what ‘losing face’ means to the Chinese. We ended up with import bans, a hostile reaction to our diplomatic endeavours to put things right and a refusal by the leadership to meet with their Australian counterparts.

Into this heady scene tiptoed the new Labor government, sticking to its ‘softly, softly’ script. China’s Premier Li Keqiang welcomed the new government in language the ABC interpreted as ‘warm’, as he mentioned the Whitlam government forming diplomatic ties with China almost 50 years ago.

Eminent Australian journalist Rowan Callick, who, for 20 years, was the Australian Financial Review’s South-East Asia correspondent, recently said that the Chinese Communist Party had ‘eaten’ China.

In delivering the Ramsay Centre’s annual lecture, Callick elaborated on this, listing examples of CCP manipulation of Chinese life to ensure its own survival. He discussed how “CCP control over media and social media, national celebrations and events, education, and even printing presses had worked to suppress traditional elements of Chinese culture so that only party-friendly elements remain”.

But despite CCP control over Chinese society, Mr Callick believes the will and genius of the Chinese population will prevail.

“The party (CCP) has eaten China but it will not prove easy to digest. And China’s marvellous civilisation is being nurtured, if necessarily quietly or preferably silently, within the country by persevering scholars, artists and ordinary citizens, and overseas by people who are recreating it there.”

As Australia’s new foreign minister Penny Wong was flying around the Pacific shoring up relationships with our neighbours, China was being similarly pro-active. Despite the contentious agreement with the Solomon Islands and smaller Pacific kingdoms, it appears as if we are ‘back in the game’.

Given the long list of issues left to the incoming Federal Government, we’d assume making up with China would be a low priority – not if PM Anthony Albanese has read a book published in 2020 by former diplomat Geoff Raby.

In China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s place in the new world order, the former Australian Ambassador even speculated then that China had ‘given up’ on Australia.

A review by James Curran published in the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter tracks Raby’s argument that Australia needs to look at China “as it is, not as some fear it might become”.

“Since Tony Abbott’s Prime Ministership, Canberra’s security and intelligence agencies have dominated the making of China policy. ‘Pushing back’ now assumes the status of near-canonical doctrine.” Raby sees inconsistency at the very heart of Australia’s China policy which “talks the talk of engagement” but “walks the walk of competition and containment”.

Curran puts Raby’s argument into context by summarising four periods in Australian history marked by intense antagonism towards China. They include the gold rushes of the 1850s, the 1880s push towards Federation and the 1960s Cold War. Since 2012, the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments have rekindled this antagonism by defying President Xi Jinping’s ‘assertive projection of Chinese power’.

Warwick U3A tutor Neil Bonnell, who has been conducting a China class since 2005, says the major change he has seen in that time is the sheer volume of news and intelligence about China that is available to the public.

“My material in 2005 was gleaned from press reports, mainly The Australian, also the South China Morning Post on-line. The best (TV) material was from the ABC’s Foreign Correspondent.”

Then as now, Mr.Bonnell relied on Rowan Callick as “the most knowledgeable local authority on China that I have come across”.

The 33^rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre passed with little reported trouble, given that authorities in Hong Kong clamped down on planned rallies. Hundreds gathered at peaceful candlelight vigils in Taiwan and in Hong Kong. Some nations defied authorities by lighting candles in embassy windows.

The US State Department’s view:

“We commemorate the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, where tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters peacefully joined together to call for democracy, accountability, freedom, and rule of law. The 50-day protest ended abruptly on June 4, 1989, with a brutal assault by the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military. Countless numbers were imprisoned and the number of deaths is still unknown today.

“Today, the struggle for democracy and freedom continues to echo in Hong Kong, where the annual vigil to commemorate the massacre in Tiananmen Square was banned by the PRC and Hong Kong authorities in an attempt to suppress the memories of that day.”

To the future, then. As Geoff Raby states, Canberra will “be taken less seriously and be less respected by regional partners if it is not able to manage its relations with China”. By aligning itself so closely to the US, Australia is also identified as a strategic competitor to Beijing.

There is speculation that Australia can perhaps build a bridge to China by persuading its Quad partners (the US, Japan and India) to offer China a seat at that table. It would become the less-catchy ‘Quin,’ but in the scheme of things, that’s a small quibble. (Somehow reminds me of a song..Ed)

All we need now is a chief negotiator who understands the Asian fear of losing face (being publicly humiliated). It’s not that hard to understand.

(If you did not know about our new CD, find it here)

The global rise of Green politics

global-green-politics — Stephen Bates (Brisbane)

From grass roots beginnings as an anti-war/anti-nuclear movement in the 1960s and 1970s, the Green party has grown to be a global force in politics. Our 2022 election clearly shows the rise of the Australian Greens, which traces its origins to Tasmania in 1972. From just one Federal member in 1992, the Greens now have 22 State MPs, 4 Federal MPs, up to 12 seats in the Senate and 134 councillors in local government.

Photos L-R: Stephen Bates (Brisbane), Max Chandler-Mather (Griffith), Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Ryan), Penny Allman-Payne (Senate for Queensland).

Just over 12% of eligible voters gave The Australian Greens their primary vote in the May 21 Federal election, the party’s best result since formation in 1992. The Australian Greens went from holding one seat in Federal Parliament in 2019 to four seats this time around. While the polls show that 2.2 million people gave their primary vote to the Greens, preferences made by Green voters also helped oust the Liberal party. If current trends continue, the Greens could hold as many as 12 Senate seats, double its 2019 tally.

What Greens leader Adam Bandt dubbed a ‘Greenslide’ on May 21 resulted in key Brisbane suburbs with Green MPs in both State and Federal Parliament.

This is quite a growth path from a grass roots Tasmanian organisation which first ran for Parliament in 1972 and won its first Senate seat in 1990. The Greens now have 16 MPs in State governments and six in the ACT Government. The Greens are also a force in local government, with 94 councillors in New South Wales and Victoria and another 40 in other States and Territories, including two in the Northern Territory.

Despite their influence in local politics, the Greens will be seen to best effect whenever the Senate is asked to approve bills which go against the party’s environmental and sustainability policies.

Despite Labor this week winning two extra seats (77 in total), they will still have to work with up to 12 independents, as well as the four Green MPs.

The conservative forces that ruled this country for almost a decade would say the swing to Greens and Independents will make Australia ‘ungovernable’. What’s needed (as one can now hear as a faint echo from the days of Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison), is a strong government with a clear mandate (and a strong border, all 59,681 kms of it). This time, more Australian voters have said no to being ruled by major parties, even if, as it turns out, we’ll end up governed by a Labor party with a two-seat majority in the lower house.

We should have seen this coming. Political parties have been falling out of favour with the public for decades. The Pew Research Centre concluded from a survey of voters in 14 European countries that few express positive sentiments towards political parties.

Only six parties (of the 59 tested) were viewed favourably by half or more of the population. Populist parties across Europe also received largely poor reviews. The Pew research found that of the 21 populist parties it asked about in the survey, only six received positive reviews. (all were part of the government in their respective countries).

There are at least 80 Green parties around the world and all subscribe to much the same principles and aims espoused by the Australian Greens.

The philosophy is anchored in what Greens call the four pillars – peace and non-violence, ecological sustainability, participatory democracy, and economic and social justice.

Council for Foreign Relations writer James McBride says the climate change debate has enhanced the rise of the Greens from a one-issue party to a group with the ability to hold key positions in government.

But he adds that the movement remains divided over issues such as nuclear energy, military force, foreign policy, and co-operation with right-wing and populist parties.

For example, the Alliance 90/Greens members of Germany’s government have advocated for stronger Western support for Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

According to the Global Green Network, some party members hold key positions in European governments. For example, Germany’s Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is chair of the Alliance 90/Greens party.

Like so many Green parties around the world, Alliance 90/Greens grew out of student protests and anti-war/anti-nuclear movements in the 1960s and 1970s. The present-day German party is a merger between two Green parties and Alliance 90, which describes itself as ‘Centre-Left’. Having finished in third place with 14.8% of the votes, the party entered coalition talks with the centre-right FDP and socialist SPD, eventually joining a coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Greens have five ministers in the Cabinet.

This insight into European politics does, to some extent, predict the future for Australia’s newbie Green politicians, taking their lead from veteran Adam Bandt. But there is more trenchant opposition to Greens here than there is in cosmopolitan Europe. In Australia, the Greens are seen by conservative forces as anti-farming, anti-coal and anti-development. At times, the more ardently left Greens have given the establishment cause to think so.

Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, interviewed on ABC Breakfast this week, reiterated (his view of) the conservative country party’s positions on coal. He advocated nuclear energy (so coal production workers can keep their jobs) and stressed that Australia should hold firm to a 2050 zero emissions deadline.

Two things about this interview: hello, he’s not leader any more. So why did the ABC interview Barnaby rather than the incoming leader, David Littleproud? Secondly, has the National Party learned anything from the relatively huge swing to Greens and independents on May 21? Or is it just that Barnaby is (still) allowed to speak for them, enhanced by the media’s constant quest for ‘colour’ and controversy.

As James McBride observes, Green parties all tend to share the same four principles, but more broadly include opposition to war and weapons industries, especially nuclear weapons. The Greens are sceptical about global trade arrangements and consumerist industrial society.

“They have a preference for decentralised decision-making and localism, a commitment to social justice, racial and economic equality, and women’s empowerment.”

Underpinning this story is the Global Green New Deal, an initiative launched in 2021 to accelerate the pace of cleaning up industry and reducing CO2 emissions.

As you’d expect, the G7 spends proportionately more on clean industry initiatives. The GGND states that high-income OECD countries spend at least 1% of their GDP over two years aimed at reducing carbon dependency. Developing economies should also spend at least 1% of GDP on improving clean water and sanitation for the poor and reducing carbon dependency.

The Guardian reported last year that while many government leaders had promised to “build back better” from the pandemic, few countries were investing in the new infrastructure needed. Research by Vivid Economics found that about a tenth of the $17 trillion being spent globally to rescue stricken economies was going on projects that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions or restore nature.

Incoming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in his victory speech on election night that Australia could become “a renewable energy superpower”. Australians who voted Green 1/Labor 2 after enduring the trauma from climate change storms, bushfires and floods will probably hold him to that.

Australia enters a brave new world

crossbench-history-green — Australia’s crossbench in history. Chart courtesy of Ben Raue

The reactions to Labor’s somewhat unexpected election win on Saturday night have reflected the about-turns that occur when the political climate changes. As always, there were positive opportunities for some. Sydney University wasted no time congratulating incoming PM Anthony Albanese, an alumni member. It should also be noted that former Prime Ministers who attended Sydney University included Gough Whitlam, John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull. So much for universities being the breeding ground of Marxists.

Former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull took to social media to wish Albo (as he is known in Aussie shorthand), all success in his new job ‘from one good bloke to another’.

Another former PM, John Howard, was drafted late into the Liberal campaign to mix it up in marginal Sydney seats in an election Howard said was ‘too tight to call’. As far as I can tell, Mr Howard has not had anything to say in the aftermath of Saturday’s poll. Why would he?

The Guardian’s top satirist, First Dog on the Moon, gave a harsh farewell to Scott Morrison’s government: “Good riddance you jabbering ghouls.” At the same time, the cartoonist was sharpening his quill ready to skewer the incoming PM. One dog says “I love Albo, I really do” while the other says Albo is a “gazillionaire landlord with a bunch of properties”. (His register of interests doesn’t indicate this. Ed) It won’t take long for the honeymoon to end.

Fair to say the Labor Party did not win this election – rather, the Liberal Party lost it, giving up seats not only to Labor but the Greens and Independents. The Greens improved their national vote, up 1.9% to 12.3%. This might give you some clue to the voting tendencies of young voters. As polls had shown, the 18-34 cohort was most worried about climate change. Given that neither of the major parties had bold things to say in the campaign about the climate crisis, it’s not surprising that young people would vote Green.

My favourite pundit accurately predicted the partial disintegration of the major parties vote in favour of independents. Veteran blogger Everald Compton wrote an unequivocal essay detailing why the Liberals would lose seats (and where) and who would gain. He was mostly right.

Top of Everald’s wish list was that we would end up with a Prime Minister who is neither Albo or ScoMo. Well that didn’t quite happen, but as the 90-year-old blogger rightly asked:

“Why have we reached this point where politics is at its lowest ebb of my lifetime. Indeed, a huge percentage of voters rank it as the lowest of the low?

“The cause is that political parties on both right and left are tightly controlled by small groups of power brokers who produce privileges for elite people, while arrogantly insisting that it is all really ultra democratic.”

The mainstream media, represented for the most by Rupert Murdoch’s News Ltd., is still to fully mount a persuasive argument as to how and why their editorials got it so wrong.

Retired News executive Chris Mitchell came out swinging, blaming journalists, particularly the ABC, for inaccurately portraying Scott Morrison as someone who had a problem with women.

Peta Credlin and others on the conservative channel Sky News had some predictably caustic things to say which lost their sting as a result of the undeniable swing to Labor, Greens and Independents.

Former PM Kevin Rudd, who is leading a campaign for an inquiry into News Corp and the power it wields, posted a telling graph on social media. It showed that in the lead up to the election, News Corp front pages ran 188 pro-Liberal stories, compared with just 38 for Labor and 99 ‘neutral’. Our State newspaper, the Courier-Mail, carried more than a few anti-Labor stories, going hard with an ‘Albo’s S****show’, story based on the Labor leader’s first campaign gaffes, including not knowing the current official interest rate. (By the bye, I didn’t know what it was either).

The media in general will have some dungeon-searching to do, given the extent to which their political writers failed to see the rout coming, particularly Western Australia’s swing against the Liberals.

American broadcaster CNN reported the election result as a clear win for climate action. CNN said the election showed a strong swing towards Greens candidates and Independents who demanded emissions cuts far above the commitments made by the ruling conservative coalition.

CNN said the climate crisis was one of the defining issues of the election, as one of the few points of difference between the Coalition and Labor, and a key concern of voters, according to polls.

Marija Taflaga, lecturer in politics and international relations at the Australian National University, said the swing towards the Greens was remarkable. “I think everyone has been taken by surprise by these results…I think it will mean there will be greater and faster action on climate change more broadly.”

Labor has promised to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050, partly by strengthening the mechanism used to pressure companies to make cuts.

As the Prime Minister-elect headed to Tokyo for talks with the leaders of the US, India and Japan, China made its first official comment on the election win.

As the ABC reported, Beijing showed it is willing to patch things up with the newly elected Albanese government after more than two years of a cool relationship with the former government.

Premier Li Keqiang’s congratulatory message used ‘warm language’ referencing the Whitlam Labor government’s establishment of diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic 50 years ago.

Mr Li said China was “ready to work with the Australian side to review the past, face the future, uphold principles of mutual respect, mutual benefit.”

While vote counting continues (it could take a week or more to decide the close seats), one thing is certain, this government will have the largest cross-bench in our history.

The cross-bench refers to independent politicians who usually vote with the government but can and will cross the floor to vote with the opposition if so moved. Australia has only ever had between three and five cross-benchers.

This time around, there will be 15 and maybe more Green and Independent politicians helping to inform the government of the day.

As Everald Compton said last Friday, this will create a long overdue and stable government that achieves progress and prosperity with justice and compassion.

“The Coalition will be decimated and divided and in need of total reform as they have self-destructed.

“The remnants of the Liberal Party will break up, with the Pentecostals separating from the Moderates. The National Party, having lost seats, will have a bitter leadership turmoil. Their extreme right will join with the Pentecostals.” (Everald was wrong about the National Party losing seats- they were re-elected in all of the seats they held before the election. Otherwise, his predictions are pretty accurate. Ed)

The one big loser from Saturday’s election is the United Australia Party, which reportedly spent $100 million trying to make an impact. UAP won no seats and only improved its vote by 1.7% to 4.1%. By contrast, the Legalise Cannabis Party attracted more than 75,000 Senate votes on a shoe-string budget and may gain a Senate seat, at the expense of perennial campaigner Pauline Hanson.

The shape of things to come may be that Albanese’s Labor government will need support from the cross-bench to introduce new policy. The numbers so far suggest Labor should be able to govern in its own right. Failing that, welcome to a European-style government where Greens and Independents have the final say. It’s not a bad thing.

Democracy Sausage – A Rare Treat

democracy-sausage-elections — Parliament House in Canberra, image Simon Yeo, https://www.flickr.com/photos/smjb/9223049760/

When you go to vote tomorrow, be thankful we live in a democracy where we have freedom (up to a point) to choose who leads us.

Think about the 52 nations which are not a democracy. They are run either by a dictator or an autocratic regime. Within the borders of these countries, the general population has no say at all. In almost all those nations there is no free and independent press. Troublesome journalists are murdered or, more commonly, jailed. The 2021 World Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Without Borders (RSF) shows that journalism is completely or partly blocked in 73% of the 180 countries ranked by the organisation. RSF keeps a running tally of journalists killed since January this year: (26 journalists and two media workers) and 461 journalists and 18 media workers who are in prison for doing their job.

Safe to say these scribes were just trying to get the word out from one of the 52 nations that don’t have a democracy. They include China, North Korea, Myanmar, Afghanistan, many Middle East Kingdoms and a host of African countries. The 2021 survey by The Economist’s Intelligence Unit says that only 6.6% of the world’s population lives in one of 21 “full democracies”.

Australia operates under the Westminster system of democracy, that is, we’re not a monarchy, but the British monarchy plays a role. Just how much of a role was demonstrated in 1975 when the Governor-General John Kerr sacked the sitting Prime Minister, Gough Whitlam.

Every Australian citizen aged 18 and over (with the exception of prisoners serving over 3 years and those of ‘unsound mind’) gets a vote (voting is compulsory in this democracy), and a rigid system of checks and balances aims to stamp out cheating.

The electoral roll closed last month, so these figures are current: 17.793 million eligible voters (96.8%) will go to the polls. If you were wondering, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) estimates there are 564,240 Australian who are eligible to vote but are not on the roll.

Think about that for a moment.

The main advantage of compulsory voting is it allows certainty about the voter turnout and ensures there’s enough of everything to go around. It also means the Democracy Sausage* providers can estimate stock with minimum wastage.

Our election results are muddied by a confusing system of preferential voting. Rather than the first past the post system preferred by the US, UK, New Zealand, Canada and others, voters must number their choices by preference. If you don’t, or otherwise muck up the ballot paper, your vote will not be counted.

This farcical system forces rabid voters of the right and left to apportion part of their vote to a party they wouldn’t point the garden hose at if it were on fire. So rather than choosing the party/politician of your choice, voters must number other candidates in order of preference. When votes are counted, the distribution of preferences can be crucial in a tight contest.

The preferential voting system was introduced in the 1920s by Billy Hughes during the formation of the Country Party. Hughes saw it as a means of avoiding the two conservative parties splitting the vote (to the benefit of Labor).

This example collated by the ABC demonstrates how the preferential system can deliver unexpected outcomes:

“The Corangamite by-election on December 14, 1918 was the first Federal poll conducted under the new system. Previously, voting had been on a first past the post basis.

In a field of five, Labor led on primary votes. Future Labor Prime Minister James Scullin polled 42.5% of the vote. But a tight exchange of preferences between four competing conservative candidates saw Scullin’s vote rise to only 43.7% after preferences. The Victorian Farmers Union candidate came from 26.4% on primaries to win with 56.3% after preferences.”

(Ed and Scribe disagree on this point. Under the ‘first past the post’ system, a person can be elected even though the majority of voters didn’t vote for them Eg say there are five candidates in an electorate. Candidate A gets the most ‘first past the post’ votes with 37% Candidate B gets 35%, C, D and E the remainder. So ‘A’ wins, even though 63% of voters didn’t want that candidate and nearly as many preferred ‘B’. Under the preferential system, the winning candidate will be the one who gains the most first preference votes, combined with the second preferences of the unsuccessful candidates, meaning most people end up with their first or second preference as their representative. If this is clear as mud, you weren’t paying attention in Citizenship Education classes…)

If that seems wrong to you, that is the system we have inherited.

Consider the vote counts for the 2019 election. On a two-party preferred basis (after preferences are distributed), the Liberal National Coalition (LNP) received 7.34 million votes, a 51.33% majority against Labor’s 6.90 million votes (48.7%). It’s not often emphasised, but Australia’s Green party took just over 10% of the popular vote in 2019, amassing some 1.47 million votes. While the Greens still have only one Federal member, the party has nine seats in the Senate.

Australia’s best-known election analyst, Antony Green, said this about preferential voting, apropos the 2019 surprise result (polls had consistently said the LNP would lose):

“For all the talk of preferences deciding elections, in the end who wins depends more on whether Labor or the Coalition have the higher primary vote,” Green said.

“In the last two decades, Labor’s first preference support has trended down largely because of the growth in Green (party) support.”

Earlier this year Mr Green published a graph which illustrates the influence of preferences on election results.

The other factor which sways election results in this geographically vast and relatively under-populated land is electoral boundaries.

Our electorate, Maranoa, is impossibly large – almost 730,000 square kilometres – encompassing 17 Local Government Areas. The electorate is so large we have seen little of the Labor candidate, given that he lives in Barcaldine, about 1,000 kms North-West. The result is academic, apparently, with the seat being held by conservatives since 1943. Federal MP David Littleproud looks set for another term in Parliament, despite having to wrangle an electorate three times the size of Victoria.

Contrary to popular myth, political parties don’t redraw electoral boundaries. This task is carried out by the Australian Electoral Commission to maintain the concept of ‘one vote, one value’. Boundaries are frequently re-drawn in physically large states (Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland) as their populations shift and grow. On a Federal level, the same thing is done to ensure each State and Territory has seats in the House of Representatives in proportion to their population.

The one issue that has had little or no coverage in the election campaign is the apparent desire on both sides of politics for Australia to become a Republic.

Yes, I know we had a referendum in 1999 and the motion was defeated, but successive polls have shown political support for Australia to become a Republic (but not in Queen Elizabeth II’s lifetime).

I’m not suggesting that Bill Shorten’s stance on this topic contributed to his defeat in 2019, but he was on record as saying he would have held a plebiscite if elected in 2019. While Labor and the Greens support Republicanism, there is also support within conservative parties. We should not forget that the 1999 referendum was driven by one Malcolm Turnbull, who 16 years later served one term as Australia’s (Liberal) Prime Minister.

While your imagination is reeling at the thought of President Albanese, President Morrison or President Wong, you could donate a couple of dollars for your Democracy Sausage on the way out of the polling booth.

I’m not sure what happens in other democracies, but down here local community groups like Lions, Rotary, school P&Cs and such run barbeques at polling booths and offer voters a sausage on a bun or a piece of (white) bread.

I’d make two observations about this: 1/ the aim is to donate money to a good cause; 2/ you don’t have to eat it.

But it’s an Aussie tradition, eh, like two-up on Anzac Day and wrapping yourself in a flag on Australia Day. Who am I to put a dampener on that?

#bobforpresident

FOMM back pages

Climate Crisis on Election Back-burner

climate-crisis-election — Coal-fired power station in Germany – Catazul www.pixabay.com

My reading of election coverage (such as it is), is that both major parties have shuffled the climate crisis to the back burner. It must be crowded back there, with homeless people and refugees trying to stay warm.

What has been widely ridiculed as the ‘shouty’ debate (on Channel Nine) said nothing meaningful about the most important issue of all – the climate crisis. Such has been the pre-occupation with the election here, we haven’t seen much coverage of Canada’s wet, cold spring, India and Pakistan’s lethal heatwaves, or debate about whether our wet autumn is driven by climate change or something else.

People who deny climate change theory often dismiss it with ‘there’s always been climate change’. Well, yes, but it’s been accelerating since 1950 and in 2022 we have the technology to make material changes.

Andrew Wallace, Federal member for Fisher and Speaker of the House, recently told a public meeting in Montville he was not convinced that climate change was caused by emissions from human industry.

Sunshine Coast resident Gillian Pechey, who was at the meeting, wrote to the Glasshouse News after hearing this statement.

“I asked him (Wallace) whether he had worries about the predicted ocean level rise, loss of the sandy beaches which tourists flock to holiday on. He smiled! His position is predicted to lead to global temperature rise of 3-4 degrees. Parts of Queensland will become unliveable unless you’re wealthy enough to live and work in a solid air-conditioned building.

“It is frustrating to see the lead political party turning its back on climate science which predicts that over this century we will continue to have destructive bushfires, floods, eroded beaches and gradual loss of the Great Barrier Reef.”

FOMM’s observation is that Andrew Wallace, elected in 2019 with a 62.7% two-party preferred vote, is obviously going to stick to the LNP’s position on subsidising fossil fuel at the expense of investment in renewable energy. He persists with this line even when campaigning in the Green-friendly towns of the Sunshine Coast hinterland.

Whatever politicians are saying (or not saying) about the climate crisis, there is evidence that the general population has been trying to self-educate. The ABC found a researcher who uncovered a 5,000% increase in the volume of climate questions on Google since 2019.

The data has been ‘normalised’, meaning interest has increased relative to that of other topics. The use of ‘big data’ to reach conclusions is called ‘culturomics’.

For the past 18 months, social researcher Rebecca Huntley has been conducting focus groups to understand climate change concerns among Australians.

Dr Huntley said the Google search data broadly aligns with the focus group results. Various other polls concur – the climate crisis is a hot-button issue. The ABC’s Vote Compass shows an overwhelming number of Australians want more action to reduce carbon emissions.

“The basic theory as to why this is happening now rather than, say, three years ago, is stuff builds up,” Dr Huntley said.

She told the ABC the 2019/20 Black Summer fires were not enough on their own to “shift the dial” on climate concern. But they were followed by two other major climate crisis events.

Australia was criticised for inaction on climate change at the November 2021 COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. Australia did present a net zero emissions plan, but it lacked detail and critics pointed this out.

The third event which may have tipped some Australians over the climate fence was the 2022 floods in Queensland and New South Wales. There’s no evidence yet to blame that individual weather event on climate change. But it was consistent with predictions of the type of epic natural disaster we can expect under global warming scenarios.

The ABC delved into the Google research to find that the top ‘searchers’ came from very small towns, which suggests the data may not be that reliable. A reporter asked Lawrence Springborg, Mayor of Goondiwindi Shire and president of the Queensland Liberal National Party, what he thought.

He suggested people were searching “because they don’t believe” climate change and wanted ammunition to disprove the science when the topic came up in conversation.

“I have absolutely no idea why they’re searching,” he added.

One of the common searches on Google is ‘when did climate change start’.

The latest research now suggests that atmospheric warming began in the early to mid-1800s, rather than the mid-20^th century. Until 1950, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels had never been above 300 parts per million. Now the readings are over 400 ppm and rapidly increasing.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report says the current warming trend is unequivocally the result of human activity since the mid-20^th century.

“It is undeniable that human activities have warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land and that widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.”

The Sydney Morning Herald said the Resolve Political Monitor found young voters (18-34) ranked climate change as the second-most important issue in this year’s election. Not surprisingly, the number one issue for young voters was keeping the cost of living low.

Meanwhile, the LNP is sticking to its target of reducing emissions by at least 26% by 2030. Labor’s target is 43% although climate experts warn Australia must cut emissions 75% by 2030. Both major parties want to keep on exporting coal, despite the US Environmental Protection Agency stating that the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Professor Stephen Bartos was recently commissioned by Farmers for Climate Action to prepare a report on the impact of climate change on food supply. Farmers for Climate action is part of the National Farmers Federation (which has 7,000 members).

Writing in The Conversation, Prof Bartos, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, explained his methodology. He reviewed research in this area, interviewed more than a dozen farmers, farmer representative bodies, and other participants in the food supply chain. Among the issues identified were the impact of drought, diseases and stress on livestock, the loss of food due to hotter weather, and shorter shelf lives.

“An unexpected finding was the degree to which everyone involved in the supply chain is affected by uncertainty caused by climate change. It is making future weather highly unpredictable, making planning harder for both farms and in transport networks.”

Climate change has made a further impact on lending and insurance, where unpredictability means higher costs for financial products. Some farmers reported that they were unable to insure due to climate risks. All these costs are passed on to consumers in the form of higher food prices.

This concurs with the Climate Council’s findings that one in 25 Australian properties would be ‘uninsurable’ by 2030. The Climate Council says this is directly due to the rising risk of extreme weather and the impact of climate change.

The Climate Council created at interactive map so households, businesses and farmers can assess the likely risk. Queensland is looking vulnerable.

Finally, though this report is five months old and I’ve mentioned it before, it should be remembered that Australia ranked last in a survey of 60 countries on climate change policy. The Climate Change Performance Index, published annually since 2005, gave Australia a zero for its policy response to the climate crisis, citing ‘a lack of ambition and action’.

As we post this, the Condamine River has risen so much overnight authorities are about to close the bridge into town. The Cunningham Highway to Brisbane is closed and the road to Toowoomba must surely be compromised.

Climate crisis? What climate crisis.